Uncategorized
February 17, 2018 | Uncategorized |
There’s an especially heavy schedule of speeches from the Federal Reserve this week–with U.S. stock markets hanging on every word. With the next Fed meeting scheduled for March 21–and with everyone expecting an interest rate increase from the U.S. central bank–this week is one of the Fed’s last big chances to direct expectations before the Fed’s March 21 meeting. The Fed’s quiet period begins the second Saturday before a meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee so the “no public comments” period for this meeting begins on March 10.
February 12, 2018 | Uncategorized, You Might Have Missed |
After getting their heads handed to them when volatility rocketed to 37.32 on the VIX on February 5 from 11.33 on February 1, low volatility traders were back today betting the the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) would continue its fall from 25.61 at the close today. That’s another drop of 11.87% today. After that 230% move to the upside, which resulted in some low volatility ETFs recording 90% losses, the VIX is down 31.4% from its February 5 high.
February 9, 2018 | Uncategorized, You Might Have Missed |
Once upon a time, before the U.S. stock market moved into an actual correction and before bond yields spiked, the Federal Reserve was clearly on track to raise short-term interest rates at its March 21 meeting. The debate in the financial markets was about whether the Fed would increase its benchmark interest rate three or four times in 2018. But then we got tax cuts piled on top of spending increases.
January 23, 2018 | Uncategorized, You Might Have Missed |
This market remains determined to rally as we head into earnings season. Look no further than the reaction to earnings from Netflix (NFLX) for evidence. The stock market could have reacted to yesterday’s earnings from Netflix (NFLX) by selling down the shares. Could have. But didn’t.
January 16, 2018 | Uncategorized, You Might Have Missed |
Ever since the January 11 announcement from Wal-Mart (WMT) that it would increase the starting wage rate for hourly workers to $11 (and provide a one-time cash bonus of up to $1,000 plus expanded maternity and parental leave b benefits,) pundits have seized on the news to say either “See, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Bill is already working,” or “This is all about competition for workers in a tight jobs market and has nothing to do with recent tax cuts.”
January 15, 2018 | Uncategorized, You Might Have Missed |
There is a possibility that the recently passed tax cuts will depress housing prices or at least the rate of growth in housing prices. That’s a big deal for any discussion of asset allocation in our portfolios because for most of us our house is by far our biggest asset since many of us are counting on the growth of value in our homes to fund part or all of our retirement.
January 13, 2018 | Uncategorized, You Might Have Missed |
Another week dominated by bank earnings reports will give traders and investors time to get really excited about the shift to earnings reports from other sectors in the week that begins on January 22. The big fourth quarter earnings reports for this coming week are Citigroup (C) on Tuesday (remember the market is closed on Monday for Martin Luther King’s birthday), Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) on Wednesday, and then finally some non-financial stocks on Thursday and Friday with IBM (IBM) and Schlumberger (SLB).
January 12, 2018 | Uncategorized, You Might Have Missed |
Going into earnings this morning from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) what I wanted was an indication as to whether or not the stock market would care about the billions in one-time write offs that these banks would report for the fourth quarter due to the recently passed tax bill. That’s important because this one-time charge will show up on the earnings reports of other banks, of technology companies, and of big drug makers. On the early evidence today, the market doesn’t and won’t care.
January 9, 2018 | Uncategorized, You Might Have Missed |
2017 left investors with a huge challenge as we all move into 2018. After a 21.6% return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks in 2017, do we let the money ride for 2018 or move it into other assets? Some stocks had almost unbelievable years in 2017. Amazon (AMZN) was up 56% for the year an Facebook (FB) climbed 53%. But those gains were left in the dust by the 96% gain on Alibaba (BABA) and the 115% racked up by Tencent Holdings (TCEHY). And even stocks seem to be standing still in comparison to biotech such as Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL), up 510% in 2017 or Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) ahead by 466%. For 2018 should you leave your money in those big winners from last year? Take some of it off the table and put it into laggards? Move some of it to cash?
January 8, 2018 | Uncategorized, You Might Have Missed |
The indexes set a tough benchmark in 2017 with the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index showing a total return (price appreciation plus dividends) of 21.64%. For the year the price gain on the 50 Stocks Portfolio came to 26.8%. The portfolio also showed a 1.28% yield for the year. The total return for the portfolio was 28.1% in 2017.
January 8, 2018 | Daily JAM, Uncategorized |
For the first time in years Alphabet (AKA Google) will have a booth at the biggest U.S. showplace for new consumer electronics, the Consumer Electronics Show that runs from January 7 through January 12 in Las Vegas. The goal this time won’t be urging early adopting consumers to try the latest Google gadget. The point this year is to get developers at other companies to join the Google Assistant camp instead of teaming up to work with Amazon’s (AMZN) Alexa or Apple’s (AAPL) Siri or voice assistants from Roku or LG or Samsung or Baidu (BIDU) or …
December 9, 2017 | Daily JAM, Uncategorized |
The Federal Reserve is almost certain to deliver the 25 basis point increase to its short-term interest rate benchmark that everyone expects at its Wednesday, December 13, meeting. The suspense, to the degree there is any, centers on any clues the Federal Reserve might drop as to its thinking about when it will next raise interest rates again and about how many times it will increase interest rates in 2018. I’m not expecting the Fed to say much of anything to give away the game.
