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Selling Las Vegas Sands out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio
The reason to own shares of Las VEGAS sANDS (LVS0 is the strength of its position in the gaming market in Macao, and developments that look to add faster revenue growth in that market in the relative near future. Morningstar calculates that the stock is currently trading at about 20% below fair value.
The reason to sell Las Vegas Sands is that the trade war between China and the United States is likely to get worse before it gets better. And Las Vegas Sands’ operations in Macao are totally exposed to changes in policy and regulations from the Chinese government.
Russia looks to have finally cut production to meet OPEC+ quota–just as budget pressures grow
Russia’s oil-tax revenue in February slumped by almost a quarter year-on-year, suggesting producers have reined in output to meet the country’s OPEC+ quota.
Car makers get 30 day reprieve on Mexico, Canada tariff increase
President Donald Trump is exempting automakers from newly imposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month, the White House said Wednesday, after pleas from U.S. automakers who have spent years building supply chains that stretch across international borders.
Can uncertainty cause a recession? Truck sales say Yes
Sales of the heaviest category of trucks in North America collapsed in February. ACT Research reported on Wednesday that February preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were down 34% year-over-year to 18,300 units.
Economic models on Wall Street say odds of a recession are rising
The odds of a U.S. recession are still low, but an increasing number of Wall Street economic models say the odds are climbing.
When will the cost of tariffs bite?
Two examples I’ve seen today suggest that consumers will feel the pain very soon.
Wait! today’s tariffs leave a long list of potential future tariffs
Here’s a list from the New York Times of what’s been proposed by the Trump Administration that’s still pending.
The Trump tariffs hit the fan
President Donald Trump’s deadline passed without a deal and today 25% tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products–which brought the total tax on some Chinese products to 45%–went into effect. Retaliation by China and Canada was swift–Mexico opted to wait until Sunday to respond. China imposed tariffs of up to 15 percent on a raft of U.S. farm products–including soybeans, pork and chicken, and grains. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed to fight and win a trade war with the United States.Canada will impose tariffs on roughly $107 billion worth of U.S. products. About $21 billion worth of those goods would be hit immediately, he said, with the rest taking effect in 21 days. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that her government was prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs. She told reporters that she will announce them Sunday.
Selling Chinese electric car maker BYD out of Jubak Picks tomorrow
I don’t see any way the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and the now almost certain global trade war will mean anything good for BYD (BYDDF) the leading global maker of electric and hybrid cars And apparently the stock market agreed. Today’ March 3, shares of BYD dropped 11.05% in New York trading as President Donald Trump confirmed that higher tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China would go into effect tomorrow March 4. So I will be selling shares of BYD out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow. March 4. The position was up 54% since I initiated it on December 28, 2023.
Selling Salesforce on lackluster guidance and negative general stock market trend
I’m selling Salesforce (CRM) out of my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio tomorrow, March 4. The position was up 22% as of the close on March 3 from my buy on June 22, 2024.I added the stock back in June because I think companies with existing product platform that can add AI to bring value to their customers is the next stage in monetizing AI. I still think that’s true but the trend is taking a bit longer to play out than a market increasingly impatient with AI profits is willing to pay up for.If we get the sell off that certainly now looks possible, I’d be more than happy to rebuy.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
I see the beginning of two weeks of extraordinary volatility. Look what’s on deck.
GDPNow forecast for first quarter nosedives into negative territory
The GDPNow model from the Federal ReserveBank of Atlanta updated on February 28 showed real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 plunging to a negative 1.5% rate. That’s down from a forecast of a positive 2.3% growth rate in the February 19 update.
Either maximum pressure on China or a guarantee of big retaliation
Interesting timing. President Donald Trump has announced a second round of 10% tariffs on Beijing’s exports to the United States will go into effect on March 4. That’s just one day before President Xi Jinping heads into the party’s biggest political meeting of this year, the National People’s Congress, where his lieutenants will unveil their economic blueprint for 2025. While the tariffs are unlikely to sway the growth target or fiscal policy for the year, which have been set for months, they could lead to an escalation of rhetoric as President Xi demonstrates his resolve to stand up to the United States. And an acceleration of retaliation by China.
Mexico could buy its way out of higher tariffs–by joining the Trump trade war on China
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Mexico has proposed matching Washington’s tariffs on China and urged Canada to do the same. A new additional 10% tariff on Chinese exports to the United States is scheduled to go into effect on March 4. It’s possible, Bessent said on Bloomberg TV, that Mexico could avoid higher tariffs on exports to the United States scheduled to go into effect on March 4 if it imposed a 10% additional tariff on Chinese goods to match the proposed U.S. increase. Bessent suggested that Canada should make a similar offer.
Analysts cut earnings estimates more than usual for next quarter
Analysts have lowered EPS estimates more than normal for Standard & Poor’s 500 companies for the first quarter, FactSet reported today. During the months of January and February, analysts lowered EPS estimates by a larger margin than average. The bottom-up EPS estimate for the first quarter decreased by 3.5% (to $60.66 from $62.89) from December 31 to February 27. Companies will begin to report first quarter earnings, which for most companies ends on March 31, in April. Analysts almost always cut their earnings estimates during the first two months of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter has been 2.6%. So it’s not the analysts are cutting estimates for the quarter ahead now that’s unusual. But instead it’s the larger than usual size of the cuts.
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