Daily JAM

Houses passes spending bill; now it’s up to the Senate

Houses passes spending bill; now it’s up to the Senate

Tonight the House passed a spending bill to keep the government open. Th bill does not include President-elect Donald J. Trump’s demand to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. The legislation covers government funding, disaster relief and payments to farmers, but not the debt ceiling increase that Mr. Trump had insisted on. The debt ceiling issue caused a Republican revolt that sank a previous measure on Thursday.

Another vote in the House tonight

Another vote in the House tonight

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said Friday that the House would vote on a new spending plan without President-elect Donald Trump’s demand to suspend the debt limit. A vote is expected to take place after 5 p.m. Washington time.

Just a reminder of when the debt ceiling deadline is: How about January 1, 2025

Just a reminder of when the debt ceiling deadline is: How about January 1, 2025

In June 2023 after a bitter fight, Congress agreed to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt limit until January 1, 2025. Yep, January 1. Which means that even if Congress can fix the government spending crisis it created by its inability/unwillingness to pass a fiscal 2025 budget, we will’ move straight into a debt ceiling crisis. As with many Congressional deadlines, the January 1 date doesn’t mean quite what it seems.

Another vote in the House tonight

Is there a universe where shutting the government a week before Christmas is a good idea? And yetbthat’s what republicans seem determined to do

It’s now not just that the MAGA wing of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives along with President-elect Donald Trump and who-elected-you co-president wanna be Elon Musk have killed the Continuing Resolution (CR) negotiated with Democrats by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson. That bill would have kept the government’s doors open beyond Saturday’s funding deadline until March 14, 2025. There’s no way to put together a new package and pass it before funding for the government expires. These folks have also made it extremely likely that the shutdown will last for more than a few days. How?

Fed signals fewer cuts, higher interest rates, higher inflation in 2025

Fed signals fewer cuts, higher interest rates, higher inflation in 2025

In today’s quarterly update to its projections on economic growth, inflation, and interested rates in its Dot Plot survey of sentiment, Fed officials and governors forecast fewer rate cuts for next year than in their September projections, and they saw the fight against inflation making considerably less progress in 2025. According to the median estimate, they now see the benchmark interest rate reaching a range of 3.75% to 4% by the end of 2025. That would mean just two 25 basis-point cuts. The Fed’s projections are considerably more pessimistic than investors or Wall Street economists are. A majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the median estimate would point to three cuts next year.

Please watch my new YouTube video: Hot Money Moves NOW! The dollar

Please watch my new YouTube video: Hot Money Moves NOW! The dollar

Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is U.S. Dollar. The dollar has been on a good run and is up 7% in the last three months, 2% in the last month. I expect this to continue with higher tariffs, and a Fed that will remain steady while other currencies are seeing more volatility. To get in on this you can buy an ETF like Invesco DB US Dollar Index (UUP), currently up 10.19% YTD with a 75 basis point expense ratio. Another option would be the WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU), up about 11% YTD with a 50 basis point expense ratio. WisdomTree buys Treasuries while Invesco uses futures but both are similarly sized ETFs and good ways to play the US dollar.

So much for that easy fix to China’s consumer economy

So much for that easy fix to China’s consumer economy

China’s retail sales growth unexpectedly weakened in November. Retail sales rose 3% from a year ago. That was the the slowest annual growth rate in three months and it was well below even the most bearish forecast.

Just last week Chinese policymakers elevated boosting consumption to the top priority for next year. That marked , only the second time in a decade that the consumer economy was the focus of official policy.