Morning Briefing
July 23, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On Monday, July 22, the People’s Bank of China lowered its benchmark lending rates and an important short-term policy rate.
The precise timing was a surprise although leaders at the recently concluded third plenum had flagged continuing problems in the real estate sector and soft consumer demand. This is a hugely important change in policy for the People’s Bank, which had recently shied away from cutting rates in an effort to prevent further erosion in the yuan versus the U.S. dollar, and to lower inflation caused by higher prices for imports. The move, I think, signals the hugh level of anxiety in the Beijing leadership at the economy’s refusal to respond to previous stimulus moves.
July 22, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Nothing like being at the center of the largest IT “event” in history to send a stock tumblling. Last week CrowdStrike (CRWD), one of the biggest makers of cybersecurity software, pushed out a flawed update that caused an error in the Microsoft Windows operating system that runs millions of computers at point of sales terminals and reservation systems at business such as Starbucks, at airports and airlines, and at banks and financial markets. The file “C-00000291*.sys,” was buried in an update for CrowdStrike’s Falcon sensor product and caused an error in Microsoft Windows operating system. Repairing the damage is expected to take months such much the work has to be done manually. Meanwhile CrowdStrikes shares are in free fall. The shares lost 11% on Friday and dropped another 13.5% today.
July 18, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
With the first Federal Reserve interest rate cut likely at the central bank’s September 18 meeting, some current economic data raise the possibility that the economy is slowing more than the Fed–and Wall Street–would desire.
July 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, IWM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, RWM, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
The small-cap Russell 2000 index gained 1.90% yesterday, July 15. That beat the 0.28% gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500. And the 0.53% gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. And a 0.27% gain for the NASDAQ 100 index.And today, as of noon, New York time, the Russell 2000 is up another 2.25% versus a gain of just 0.30% for the S&P 500 and 1.21 for the Dow Industrials.The NASDAQ 100 is off o.20% All his continues the outperformance trend of last week that I wrote about in yesterday’s Saturday Night Quarterback post.
July 12, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined 0.1% In June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. The month-to-month CPI inflation rate was unchanged in May.
Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0% before seasonal adjustment. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 3.1% rate. The all-items index rose at a 3.3% annual rate in May. The core index rose at a 3.3% annual rate in June. That was the smallest 12-month increase in that index since April 2021.
July 7, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Special Reports, Stock Alerts |
Today I’m making Rockwell Automation my sixth pick in my Special Report 5 Next Big Things. This pick just about completes the picks for my first of those 5 Nect Big Things, the Next Phase in the AI boom.
July 5, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, July 5. That was above the median forecast of 190,000 new jobs in a Bloomberg survey of economists. But even though the June number came in above expectations, the overall message in the data was that the labor market is slowing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised job growth in the prior two months down by 111,000. Average monthly job growth over the last three months slowed to the lowest rate since the start of 2021. And the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%
July 2, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Stock Alerts |
I can’t give you a definitive call on the top for this stock and this rally, but I cam sure of one thing, I don’t want to sell Nvidia before the company’s new Blackwell chip architecture has hit full launch speed in late 2024 and 2025. My read is that this is the “perfect” AI chip for this moment in the AI boom.
July 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Wall Street strategists at influential investment giants are starting to recommend buying inflation hedges for 2025.
That means, at the moment, buying at the short-term end of the Treasury market–like 3-month to 12-month bills–and selling at the long-end–like 10-year notes.
June 27, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Micron Technology (MU) shares shares are down another 7.12% today, Thursday, June 27, as of the close in New York time. That’s after the stock fell 6.5% in after hours trading yesterday. The problem wasn’t the company’s third-quarter earnings report after the market close yesterday. For the period ended May 30, Micron earned an adjusted 62 cents a share. Analysts had expected the company to earn 53 cent a share. Revenue was up 82% year-over-year to $6.81 billion. Wall Street was looking for $6.67 billon in revenue. But the very solid beat for the quarter turned out not to matter as far as market reaction was concerned. The problem was guidance.
June 25, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
I think there are reasons to worry about Nvidia’s valuation and its ability to continue to generate revenue and earnings growth at a pace that would support a forward price to earnings ratio above 40, but I think those re worries for 2025. In 2024, I don’t see anything that disrupts the AI boom story. Over the next six months or so I’d like to be buyer, especially id I can get the shares on a temporary drop. So yesterday’s drop to $118 was a promising development. There was technical support at the 50-day moving average near $100 so there was a chance the stock would move lower. Today, Tuesday, June 25, though, shares of Nvidia rallied, closing ups 6.76% at $126.09. This doesn’t mean the drop is over or the opportunity is lost,
June 21, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Since March, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has accused three companies of misrepresenting how they use machine learning and other tools in what is being dubbed, by analogy with green washing, exaggerated environmental claims–AI washing.
