Morning Briefing
February 29, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
The headline, all-items Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, climbed at a 2.4% year over year rate in January. That was in line with what economists had forecast and down from the 2.6% annual rate in December. The core PCE, that is after stripping out more volatile food and fuel prices, climbed at a 2.8% year over year rate. In December the annual rate of core inflation had been 2.9%. But that was the end of the good news in today’s PCE inflation report.
February 26, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
On Thursday the financial markets get a new monthly PCE inflation report. The PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure. And Thursday’s report on January inflation could be bad news for the financial markets,
February 23, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Economics is supposed to be the gloomy science. So where’s the gloom? Stock markets are supposed to climb a Wall of Worry. So where’s the worry? In its latest survey (February 16-21) of economists (72 of them), Bloomberg found them positively giddy–for economists.
February 20, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Morning Briefing |
t should be a familiar story in this priced-to-perfection market: Company beats big in current quarter but lowers guidance and stock takes a dive. Latest victim? Palo Alto Networks (PANW). The stock is down 14.09% at 4:30 New York time today. And with Nvidia scheduled to report tomorrow after the close, you can bet the market will be on edge tomorrow.
February 17, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, OGXI, Top 50 Stocks |
I expect the market reaction to Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report, to be released after the close on Wednesday, February 21, to tell investors a lot about the short-term direction of this stock market. We’re likely to learn more, however, from the reaction to an Nvidia beat rather than from an earnings miss.
February 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The Labor Department reported Friday that its producer price index—which tracks inflation before it reaches consumers—rose 0.3% from December to January. The index had dropped -0.1% in December. Measured year over year, producer prices rose by 0.9% in January. But the month to month increase in producer prices and at a higher month to month rate is the latest sign that getting inflation the “last mile” down to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate is going to be harder and take longer than expected.
February 15, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Remember all that fear talk after CPI headline inflation came in at a 3.1% annual rate in January versus the projected 2.9%? Well, that lasted all of a day.
February 13, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Headline, all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell again in January, but not by as much as economists had projected before this morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January prices rose at 3.1% year-over-year. That’s a slower increase than the 3.4% annual rate notched in December. But economist had projected that inflation would dip to a 2.9% annual rate. And stocks dropped on the disappointment.
February 12, 2024 | Daily JAM, KRE, Morning Briefing |
Nearly 20% of outstanding debt on US commercial and multifamily real estate-— $929 billion–will mature this year, requiring refinancing or property sales, Bloomberg reported today. The volume of loans coming due has swelled 40% from an earlier estimate by the Mortgage Bankers Association of $659 billion, a surge attributed to loan extensions and other delays rather than new transactions. About $4.7 trillion of debt from all sources is backed by U.S. commercial real estate. An estimated $85.8 billion of debt on commercial property was considered distressed at the end of 2023, MSCI Real Assets reported, citing an additional $234.6 billion of potential distress.
February 11, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
I expect another downward move for inflation when the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is reported on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the core consumer price index, which excludes move volatile food and fuel prices, will show a year over year rate of increase of 3.7% in January. That would be the slowest year-over-year increase since April 2021.
February 9, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
As I wrote a few days ago in my post “Was the Meta Platform 20% pop the market top? An important sign, yes,, but not for the reasons you think” I do think this stock market rally is putting in a top.
But I’m not worried that we’re looking at a reply of the Dot-Com crash and Bear Market that took the NASDAQ Composite down 40% in 2000 after that tech-heavy index gained more than 85% in 1999.
Why not? Let me count the ways. I get to four.
February 8, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The news pointing to serious trouble in China’s economy–the kind that can’t be fixed by replacing market regulators in Beijing–keeps on coming. If you’re looking for “something” that could upset the global apple cart in 2004, keep your eye on China. The country’s market is big enough to matter for just about every company doing business internationally, and China is a key market for companies ranging from Tesla and Apple to Starbucks and Yum Brands. So the news today from the National Bureau of Statistics showing another big drop in consume prices–in this case not good news on inflation but a signal of sluggish domestic demand–worries me.
