Morning Briefing
December 30, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
For the week ended December 25, U.S. workers filed 198,000 new claims for unemployment, a drop of 8,000 from the previous week and below the 206,000 initial claims expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Continuing claims for unemployment for the week ended December 18 were 1.716 million against an expected 1.875 million. The continuing claims number was a pandemic low. Economists are now looking to a further drop in the official unemployment rate for December
December 29, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up 6 basis points to 1.54% and is now up 60 basis points in the last year. You sure could see this as evidence that yields are headed toward the magical 2% level in 2022. But we’re been here before in 2021.
December 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Judging from the close of Monday’s trading session, there looks to be enough fuel for a Santa Claus rally to end 2021. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.38% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.98%. The NASDAQ Composite was ahead by 1.39% and the small cap Russell 2000 was higher by 0.89%.
December 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
205,000 workers filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week. That was the same as in the prior week. And not far off the five-decade low recorded earlier in December. Which is good news considering the threat of the Omicron Variant to the economy. Except that I doubt the figure means much.
December 21, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Yesterday the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.14% and market leading stocks such as Applied Materials (AMAT) dropped 0.78%. Big drug stocks made up the only sector in the green as Pfizer (PFE) rose 2.59%,and AbbVie (ABBV) gained 1.23%. The fears yesterday were that the Omicron Variant of the Covid-19 virus would slow the economy and that Senator Joe Manchin had just killed prospects for any stimulus from the Biden Administration’s Build Back Better bill. Today the S&P 500 closed up 1.78%. A market leader like Applied Materials rose 4.42%. A big drug stock such as Pfizer was down 3.39%.
December 20, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
It’s actually surprising that markets aren’t down more so far today. As of noon New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 is lower by 1.62% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 1.75%. The NASDAQ Composite has lost 1.65% and the NASDAQ 100 has dropped 1.34%. The small cap Russell 2000 has tumbled 2.43% and the iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has fallen 1.85%. No place to hide. (Well, maybe big drug company stocks.)
December 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The saying is that stocks don’t have memories. They don’t know where they once traded and they don’t have any desire to rise or fall to where they once traded. On the other hand, investors do–have memories that is. They do think that stocks will trade back to former levels–when opportunity offers–and it takes a lot of break that conviction. Which is why trading patterns, the ones captured in technical analysis, persist for such long period. And if you needed evidence, just look at how stocks traded after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate pivot yesterday.
December 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Retail sales rose a scant 0.3% in November from October. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.8% gain. And the November growth was a huge drop froth 1.7% month to month growth in September. On a year to year basis retail sales are up 18.2% from the depressed levels of 2020. Let’s speculate on causes, shall we?
December 14, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Okay, we all know the technology and momentum heavy NASDAQ 100 is taken it on the chin recently. The index has dropped seven times in 13 sessions–and each time it dropped, the loss was more than 1%. But that’s nothing like the damage being handed out to former speculative favorites.
December 13, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Economists predict that China will add significant stimulus to its economy early in 2022. That’s just speculation at this point but it makes very solid sense given: 1. The likely slowdown in China’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2021. 2. A likely official growth target for 2022 of 5% or more 3. The Chinese Communist Party’s sense that ideology is no longer enough to keep China’s people fully behind Party rule and that growth of better than 5% is is a key part of the Party’s contract with the average Chinese citizen.
December 10, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Stocks rose today, December 10, as a huge jump in CPI inflation exactly matched economists’ projections. As they say on the basketball court, “No surprise; no foul.” The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed at a 6.8% annual rate in November.
December 9, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Tomorrow’s inflation report–the Consumer Price Index (CPI) flavor–has the potential to end the recent uptick in stocks and send prices back down and volatility back up. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a year over year increase in inflation of 6.8% in November.
