Morning Briefing
October 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On paper, there was no way that the U.S. economy added less than 200,000 jobs in September–after a strong private payrolls number the previous day from ADP Research and with economists predicting 500,000 jobs or more. But this morning’s report from the Labor Department said the September total was just 194,000. Non-farm payrolls were expected to pick up from August’s weaker than expected 235,000, but instead September’s total showed the job market expanding at an even slower pace–although this morning’s report revised the August total to 366,000 and raised the July total up 38,000 to 1.091 million.
October 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting the economy to have added 500,000 jobs in September. Anything way above or way below the number will move expectations on when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets from the current level of $120 billion a month. That taper is being widely watched as an indicator of when the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates themselves.
October 5, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Yesterday Fantasia Holdings Group became the latest property developer to fail to repay a maturing bond. That, plus ratings down grades, put Chinese junk dollar bonds on the edge of their biggest selloff in at least eight years, according to Bloomberg calculations, and pushed yields near a decade high. Fantasia’s missed payment “provides a clear sign that despite piecemeal bailouts of select Evergrande assets, property market stresses remain elevated,” Craig Botham, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told Bloomberg “The rot is unlikely to stop here.” Traders and investors are clearly worried that other real estate companies will be sucked into the debt crisis
October 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange suspended trading in shares of China Evergrande after the Chinese devel... To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing...
October 1, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, acce... To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing...
September 29, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Earnings season (for the third quarter for most companies) starts on October 13, two Wednesdays from... To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing...
September 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
In a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi today, September 28, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told ... To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing...
September 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
After being range-bound for months, yields on the 10-year Treasury broke through the top of a range that’s held since mid-July. Yields ended the week at 1.45%. The 50-day moving average on 10-year yields was 1.29% on Friday. The 2021 low, set in August, was 1.13%. The high yield, set in March, was 1.77%. This morning (September 27) the yield on the 10-year Treasury has climbed to 1.48%.
September 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state unemployment programs rose last week to 351,000 for the week ended September 18, the Labor Department reported today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a slight decline in the weekly number to 320,000. The total for the prior week was revised to 335,000. Continuing claims in regular state unemployment programs ended the week of September 11 at 2.845 million against expectations for 2.6 million. The prior weeks total was revised to 2.714 million,
September 22, 2021 | Daily JAM, FQVLF, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks, VWAPY |
I’d call the policy being followed by the People’s Bank in the China Evergrande crisis “Try to support the markets but see how little we can get away with.” Today Chins’s central bank supplied liquidity to the country’s financial markets with an injection of short-term cash. But the move fell far short of the kind of “Charge of the People’s vanguard” that the bank has mustered in earlier crises. And, importantly, there was no big statement of market support to go with today’s actions.
September 21, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Retail investors sure tried. They bought $1.93 billion in stocks on Monday. But after a solidly higher open today, Tuesday, September 21, that saw the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 0.78% at 9:48 a.m., stocks drifted slowly lower for the rest of the day as a second day of buying on the dip failed to emerge.
September 21, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Anyone watching the China Evergrande crisis–that’s China’s banks and investors and financial markets around the world–might get some guidance on Wednesday when the People’s Bank of China resumes daily open-market operations after a holiday break. At the least, the bank will tell all interested parties how much extra liquidity–if any–it’s providing to the financial system.
