Staff at the U.S. Food & Drug Administration said in a report today that Moderna’s (MRNA) coronavirus vaccine is safe and effective for preventing Covid-19 in people ages 18 and older. That came ahead of a Thursday meeting of an FDA advisory panel that will vote on whether to recommend full Emergency Use Authorization.
Stocks moved higher in the morning today on optimism that the first coronavirus vaccinations meant a “return to normal” was just around the corner. As of 10:00 a.m. Nw York time the Standard & Poor’ 500 had climbed to 3697. And then in the afternoon markets started to worry about news that New York City and California might be headed to a renewed economic lockdown. As of 2:36 p.m. the S&P 500 was back down to 3658.
Today, Friday, December 11, Senate passed a one-week spending bill that will prevent a government shutdown. The bill had already passed the House of Representatives. President Donald Trump is expected to sign the bill. The legislation simply extend government spending at current levels for a week.
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs rose on an adjusted basis by 137,000 to 853,000 in the week ended December 5, the Labor Department reported today, Thursday, December 10. the unadjusted total rose by 229,000. Continuing claims for unemployment rose by 230,000 to 5.76 million in the week ended November 28. It was the first increase in continuing claims since August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for 725,000 new claims and a total of 5.21 million continuing claims.
The government runs out of money–again–at midnight on December 11. The House of Representative plans to vote on Wednesday, today, on a continuing resolution that would extend spending for seven days at current levels. The Senate will take up that bill after the House vote. And assuming that no senator uses any of that chamber’s arcane rules to delay the vote, Congress will have averted a shutdown by the slimmest of margins
A 53-page review published as a Food & Drug Administration briefing document today confirms that the vaccine from Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) meets the agency’s standards for emergency use authorization. On Thursday, a group of advisers to the FDA will meet for a full-day public meeting to discuss the data and make recommendations on whether the vaccine merits authorization for immediate use. A decision, informed but not dictated by that meeting, is expected from the FDA within days of the meeting. The first doses are expected to be shipped immediately after FDA approval with a target of 6.4 million doses distributed in the first week.
China’s exports jumped in November by the most since early 2018. That growth pushed the country’s trade surplus to a monthly record. Exports rose 21.1% war over year in dollar terms in November, the largest increase since February 2018. Imports grew by only 4.5%. That resulted in a trade surplus of $75.4 billion for the month. That was the  largest on record in data going back to at least 1990. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast that exports would increase by 12% while imports would grow by 7%.
Th Standard & Poor’s 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ Composite all hit all time closing highs today. It’s enough to make you doubt that the U.S. economy added only 245,000 jobs in November. This was a huge miss on projections from economists the the economy would add 450,000 jobs. That projection would have itself been bad news since it would have confirmed trends that show the economic recovery losing momentum under the impact of the current surge in coronavirus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. November was the slowest month for job growth since the pandemic shut down the economy in the spring.
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs fell by 75,000 to 712.000 for the week ended November 28. That was the first decline in new claims for unemployment in three weeks. And a big improvement over the 775,000 initial claims that economists had projected before the report from the Labor Department. And stocks barely moved higher on the news. I’d characterize the reaction as a big yawn. What gives?
In a pair of late-night tweets yesterday, President Donald Trump threatened to veto the annual defense bill authorizing nearly $1 trillion in military spending unless Congress opens the door for Facebook, Twitter and other social-media sites to be held legally liable for the way they police their platforms. An actual veto–and maybe even the threat of a veto–of the defense authorization bill would scuttle all attempts to put together an actual spending authorization bill to fund the federal government after the current stop-gap measure expires on December 11.
It may be just talk, but even talk is a step forward for the stalled plan for a new round of coronavirus stimulus and aid. One of the most positive signs is the Republicans in the Senate and House are talking to the White House this time. The window for any action is very narrow since Congress needs to pass something to continue funding the government by December 12 or risk another shutdown. All of the Cares Act provisions for extended unemployment or expanded unemployment as well as those for eviction protection expire at the end of December.
China’s official Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing rose to 52.1 in November. The was up from 51.4 in October. And beat the 51.5 median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The index for the non-manufacturing sector climbed to 56.4 in November from 56.2 in October. That exceeded the median forecast of 56. The picture that emerges is of a Chinese economy that has stabilized in November and that has momentum generated by end of the year consumer spending and government measures to stimulate domestic consumer.
