Uncategorized
August 8, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Uncategorized, Videos |
Today’s Trend of the Week is Are We Looking at a Supply Crisis for Treasuries? The federal deficit grew by $1.39 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2023. That’s a huge addition to the deficit, an increase of 170% compared to the first nine months of 2022. The Treasury also recently increased its forecast for borrowing in the July-September quarter to another $1 trillion. This fast increase in the supply of Treasuries has been tough on the market. The Fed is trying to shrink its balance sheet and not buy as many new Treasuries. Private sector investors at auction are demanding a bigger discount. And because of the debt ceiling shutdown in new debt and the drawdown on the Treasury’s cash balances, the treasury has been issuing a lot of short-term bills to rebuild its buffer. Right now, however, Treasury is trying to move away from the short bills and looking to selling longer maturities. The market has little appetite for longer maturities as inflation seems to have staying power. Recent auctions on 7-20 year treasuries have been pretty weak. If you’re looking to buy 10-year Treasuries, look for an extra yield premium around 5% or so before the market is down dealling with as with this supply issue.
June 5, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Uncategorized |
U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 0.57% today to $71.74 a barrel and international benchmark Brent crude lost 0.46% to $76.31 a barrel. In spite of a big cut in production announced this weekend by Saud Arabia. The voluntary cut of an extra 1 million barrels a day in July will take Saudi production to its lowest level in years.
February 15, 2023 | Uncategorized |
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office warned, today, that the federal government would be at risk of a default as soon as July if lawmakers fail to raise the debt limit. The Treasury Department is currently using accounting gimmicks to keep paying federal obligations, after hitting the statutory debt ceiling last month. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen signaled last month that those measures would enable Treasury to keep paying the government’s bills at least until early June. Today’s CBO estimate is, thus, an updated timeline.
February 11, 2023 | Uncategorized |
It’s CPI inflation report time again. On Tuesday morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the Consumer Price Index for January. Expectations are for a mixed result with the annual rate continuing to fall from the 6.5% year-over-year headline rate in December for the CPI. But with inflation rising month-over-month for the first time in three months.
July 6, 2022 | Daily JAM, Uncategorized, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-fifty-fourth YouTube video “Strong Dollar Hits Stocks–3 Things to Do” went up today. The biggest factor driving falling prices in commodities (ahem, oil) is the rising strength of the dollar. Believe it or not, the US economy is faring better than other trading partners. That combined with rising interest rates makes for a stronger dollar. In this video, I provide three picks to address this issue as I continue to expect rate hikes from the Fed.
March 31, 2022 | Uncategorized |
Inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose by 6.4% in the year through February, the government reported today. That’s the fastest inflation rate on this scale since 1982. PCE inflation ran at an annual rate of 6.1% in January. The core index climbed at a 5.4% rate after stripping out food and fuel costs. In January the core PCE ran at an annual 5.2% rate.
November 12, 2021 | Uncategorized |
A record 4.4 million Americans quit their jobs in September. September’s “quit” numbers constituted 3% of the workforce, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s up from the previous record set in August, when 4.3 million people quit their jobs — about 2.9% of the workforce.
May 3, 2021 | Uncategorized |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
March 16, 2019 | Uncategorized |
... all attention on the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank meets on March 19 and 20 with the interest-rate setting Open Market Committee to meet and report on March 20. There is almost no chance that the Fed will either raise or lower interest rates at this...
January 5, 2019 | Uncategorized |
... the market to move with the slightest news from the talks between U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators set to run Monday and Tuesday this week in Beijing. These are working level talks, led on the U.S. side by Deputy Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish. But they're...
December 15, 2018 | Uncategorized |
... words to count. Big time. Everyone, including my Aunt Tilly, expects that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points at the Wednesday, December 19, meeting of the Open Market Committee. The CME FedWatch tool, which uses prices in...
September 29, 2018 | Uncategorized |
... economic news. Lot of economic news. It is the beginning of the month after all so we're due for all the data dumps from September. We get the Institute for Supply for Management's Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing (on Monday) and Services (on...
