Slower credit growth in China for April; People’s Bank more likely to act in summer?
Looking backward to April, it’s clear that the People’s Bank of China continued to keep the reins tight on credit and the money supply. Looking ahead, though, you can make the argument that tightness in April means that the bank is more likely to relax in June or July.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
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China’s growth continues to slow increasing speculation of a move by the People’s Bank
Chinese stocks continued to retreat overnight as the market absorbed yet another indicator that the Chinese economy is slowing. The Shanghai Composite index fell another 0.45% after retreating 0.3% yesterday. On Wednesday, April 23, the HSBC Markit Economics “ flash” manufacturing PMI at 48.3 for April showed the economy still in contraction.
China real estate market slows increasing belief that stimulus isn’t too far off
The overnight news from China adds up to more confirmation of the current market belief that the Chinese government and the central bank will start to loosen credit relatively soon in response to slowing economic growth
Chinese stocks climb on bad GDP news–but by so little as to signal belief that stimulus is still a way off
Markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai were up overnight as traders decided that the bad news on China’s economic growth in the first quarter brings the People’s Bank of China closer to intervening to stimulate the economy. But the relatively small upward move in the indexes says that much of the market remains worried that growth will slow further before the bank decides to move.
Copper prices are low enough to lead to cuts in production–eventually
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Write offs from bad loans at China’s big banks soar by 127% in 2013
China’s five biggest banks increased their write off of bad loans by 127% in 2013 over 2012 levels. And the rising level of write offs along with the puzzlingly low ratio of non-performing loans at these banks has raised suspicions that banks are manipulating write offs to prevent the non-performing loan ratios from rising so quickly that they set off alarms in financial markets.
Anything more than end of the quarter “optimism”?
Take it with a grain of salt: Today’s rally has all the earmarks of an end of the quarter effort to push stock prices higher. The driver for the upward move on stock prices today seems to be market enthusiasm for the possibility that the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Chinese government will all move to stimulate their respective economies.
China’s markets inch toward the upside down world of bad news is good news
It looks like China is headed in a “bad news is good news” direction. I think it’s a little early to proclaim that this logic is in the ascendant but I do think traders are starting to think that more bad news about China’s economy is a good thing because it pushes up the start of stimulus from the Chinese government and the People’s Bank.
Central bank worries from China to Japan to Europe are key drivers in current stock prices
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...More evidence that China’s economy is slowing
China’s economy continues to show signs of slowing. And China’s leaders continue to say that they’re okay with this slowdown.
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