War in the Ukraine by another name
Everything is in motion this morning as the conflict in Ukraine moved toward an all-out, but thoroughly denied, invasion of the east of the country by Russian troops, tanks, and artillery.
Everything is in motion this morning as the conflict in Ukraine moved toward an all-out, but thoroughly denied, invasion of the east of the country by Russian troops, tanks, and artillery.
The U.S. dollar fell and the euro climbed for the first time in four days as named—German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble—and unnamed sources—said that the currency markets have overreacted to comments by Mario Draghi.
The world’s central bankers are getting their portfolios in order to prepare for the end of the Federal Reserve’s bond purchases later this year. A May survey of 69 central bank reserve managers by Central Banking Publications and HSBC suggests that many have started to move away from longer-dated U.S. Treasuries and from the U.S. dollar
The Tokyo Stock Exchange Index, the TOPIX, posted its highest close overnight since March after climbing for a ninth day. That’s quite a turn around for Japanese stocks. The TOPIX is still down 5.7% for 2014,
The rally in U.S. Treasuries keeps on keepin’ on. But all indications are that the Treasury rally is built on the relative attractiveness of Treasuries rather than on a forecast of falling U.S. economic growth. At least that’s what the mix of stronger Treasury prices plus a steady market for stocks argues to me.
The consensus after the bank’s meeting today seems to be that unless inflation picks up in April the bank will be forced to move. The European Central Bank next meets on interest rates and monetary policy on May 8.
Today has turned into a class risk off day in global financial markets—largely on news that China’s exports plunged 18.1% in February. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 7.5% increase in exports.
Russian troops, jets, and tanks withdrew to their bases in Russia from the country’s border with the Ukraine. Russian forces remain firmly in control of the Crimea, but the end of military exercises on the Ukrainian border has taken some of the fear out of global financial markets. And that has left traders with just enough bandwidth to notice negative news out of China.
The Russian ruble is down. So is the euro and emerging market currencies and markets are taking a licking. Pretty much what you’d expect when the crisis in the Ukraine has escalated to include a threat of armed conflict between Russian and Ukrainian soldiers.