Emerging market currencies will tip length of emerging stock rally

If you’re trying to estimate how long the recent emerging market rally will run, watch the currency markets. Emerging market currency traders aren’t done with their bets against these currencies. The recent move up in these currencies—which has been a key element in the rally in emerging market stocks—looks like just a profit-taking breather in the battle.

Shift from declining to rising dollar extends for another day

The drivers seem to be better than expected U.S. retail sales for November; a report that industrial production in the EuroZone contracted in October; and a sense that a possible decision to begin tapering off the current $85 billion in asset purchases at the Federal Reserve’s December 18 meeting might not be especially scary. That last would reduce demand for the safe-haven Japanese currency.