A plunge in Germany trumped good news from the United States this morning. In Germany, the index of investor expectations from the Zew Center for European Economic Research fell to a negative 4.3 in September from 14 in August. In the United States retail sales excluding autos retail sales climbed 0.6%. That was twice as much as forecast.
Today’s jobs report adds up to good news–if you so pessimistic that you were worried about the U.S. economy slipping back into a recession. The private sector is hiring—albeit slowly. Wages are climbing—even if at a snail’s pace.
The economy is growing and this data argues against a double dip recession
Numbers released today, September 1, in China show manufacturing rebounding in August after a weak July.
It could mean that China’s “slowdown” won’t be as slow as feared. Or it could mean absolutely nothing since manufacturing activity usually speeds up in August.
More than enough economic data on tap this week to keep the stock market on edge as investors head into the long Labor Day weekend. Especially since lately each economic announcement has been the occasion for disappointment about the state of the economy.
Revised second quarter GDP numbers this morning. At some point the economist forecasts will get so negative that the contrarian play will be to put money to work on a bet that the economy won’t sink into a renewed recession.
Durables orders without the very volatile transportation section actually declined in the month. This is bad news for the economy. Manufacturing has been one of the few bright spots for a U.S. economy struggling to put together a sustainable recovery. Now this sector too is showing signs of a slowdown.
But that’s not the worst conclusion you can draw from this number. If the housing industry wasn’t able to build a real recovery out of a temporary stimulus program, then maybe, the economy as a whole won’t be able to build a lasting recovery out of the $787 billion stimulus package passed by Congress in February 2009.
