Shift from declining to rising dollar extends for another day

The drivers seem to be better than expected U.S. retail sales for November; a report that industrial production in the EuroZone contracted in October; and a sense that a possible decision to begin tapering off the current $85 billion in asset purchases at the Federal Reserve’s December 18 meeting might not be especially scary. That last would reduce demand for the safe-haven Japanese currency.

Between this morning’s two surprises, the rate cut by the ECB is a bigger deal than stronger U.S. GDP

Surprise. Actually two of them. First, the U.S. economy grew at a faster than expected 2.8% year over year pace in the third quarter. That’s up from the 2.5% rate for the second quarter. Second, the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% this morning from 0.5%. That takes the benchmark rate to a new historic low.

Will Sunday’s German elections market a peak for the euro?

Post-election Greece looks like it’s going to need either a small bridge loan or a big bridge loan and debt reduction in late 2013 or early 2014. Portugal looms as an even bigger problem with the country needing to raise $15.8 billion euros ($21.4 billion)–meaning that Portugal will almost certainty need a second full bailout program at the end of 2013 or in early 2014.