Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
...nothing of consequence from the Federal Reserve when it ends its September meeting on Wednesday, September 16. At least that's the market consensus right now. Which means that if the Fed makes adds a statement on inflation, or interest rates, or about the economy,...
Powell announces anticipated shift in policy framework at the Fed yesterday: 0% for longer
As anticipated in Wednesday's rally--the Standard & Poor's 500 climbed 1.02% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.73%--Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday announced that going forward the Fed would let inflation rise to above its current target of 2% from...
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
... Wall Street to be hanging on the words of a Thursday, August 27 speech. Not the one that night where Donald Trump accepts the Republican Party nomination for President. That's unlikely to offer any surprises to the stock market. Instead the key speech that day is...
Officially, U.S. government debt passes total U.S. GDP
In January, the Congressional Budget Office forecast that total U.S. government debt would hit 100% of GDP around 2030. At that point U.S. debt stood at about $17 trillion or roughly 80% of GDP. So much for that forecast. As of the end of June, U.S. government debt...
Deflation or a spike in inflation in 2020-21: A tale of two fatter-than-expected tails
The financial market consensus on inflation is pretty obvious: For 2020 and 2021, the U.S. economy will see modest inflation, maybe 1.5% to 1.75%. That would be significantly below the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% or so. And that gap would keep the Fed...
Inflation continues to fall; deflation a possibility
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said annualized inflation across the group of 37 advanced economies slowed to 1.7% in March from 2.3% in February. That's the biggest deceleration since the 2008 global financial crisis. Energy prices fell by...
Gold in ETFs nears record; what’s next for the yellow metal?
Gold held by ETFs (exchange-traded funds) hit the highest level in seven years on Tuesday as investors and traders piled into the traditional hedge against uncertainty and stock market volatility. Worldwide gold holdings in ETFs rose to 2,561.2 tons as of Tuesday, the...
There’s no inflation, the Federal Reserve says. You feel that’s wrong–and know what? You’re actually right
Two days after the last Federal Reserve meeting on December 11--where they told us again that inflation continues to fall below the Fed's 2% threshold and that, therefore, there's no inflation to worry about--I walked into my favorite New York bagel shop, Absolute...
India’s central bank flashes warning sign for all global financial markets
Of course, the Reserve Bank of India didn't mean to issue a warning to all global financial markets. The minutes of the central bank's December 3-5 meeting, released today, focus on the need to hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.15% after delivering 135 basis...
Inflation isn’t exactly dead
Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning...
Is that inflation we see?
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, picked up in May by 0.2% from April. That took the annual inflation rate to 1.6%. That was just above the median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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