May 4, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Initial claims for unemployment rose by the most in six weeks while continuing claims fell in the week ended April 29, the Labor Department reported this morning. Initial unemployment claims rose by 13,000 to 242,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for 240,000 initial claims. Continuing claims, which include people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more and are a good indicator of how hard it is for people to find work after losing their jobs, fell by 38,000 to 1.81 million in the week ended April 22. That marked the biggest drop since July. If you think that a rise in unemployment and a weakening of the labor market is a good thing, as the Federal Reserve does, because it sets the stage for a decline in inflation, then today’s data had its negative aspects too. A separate report out today showed U.S. worker productivity declined in the first quarter by more than forecast and labor costs accelerated. That’s a strong argument for higher inflation.
April 6, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits last week were a stronger than expected 228,000, the Labor Department reported today. The department also revised the numbers from the week before to 246,000, up by 48,000 A separate report Thursday showed job-cut announcements from U.S.-based employers rose 15% in March from the prior month, marking the highest first-quarter total since 2020, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
March 9, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Two reports showing “some” labor market weakness haven’t been enough today to offset worry over tomorrow’s jobs report for February. At the close in New York, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was off by 1.85% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 1.61%. Tech stocks led the market downward with the NASDAQ Composite lower by 2.05% and the NASDAQ 100 falling 1.80%. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost 2.81%.
February 9, 2023 | Daily JAM |
If a weaker labor market is what the Federal Reserve needs to see before it stops raising rates, the central bank didn’t get the necessary news in today’s report from the Labor Department. Initial unemployment claims rose by 13,000 to 196,000 in the week ended February 4. That’s a sign that the labor market might be weakening. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting 190,000 new claims for unemployment. However, the four-week moving average, a measure closely tracked by economists because it smooths out week-to-week volatility, dropped to the lowest level since April. The four-week moving average in initial claims edged down to 189,250.
November 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The hits keep coming. Today, November 17, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard took the lead. Bullard called for raising rates to at least 5.00%-5.25%, which he called the “minimum level” to be “sufficiently restrictive.” During Bullard’s presentation, he showed charts indicating rates will need to be 5.00%-7.00% to curb inflation.
October 6, 2022 | Morning Briefing |
First-time claims for unemployment rose to 219,999 for the week ended October 1, Labor Department reported this morning. Economists had projected a rise to 203,000. The prior week showed a revised 193,000 initial claims. Financial markets aren’t sure how much this means for tomorrow’s report on September employment. It could be the harbinger of a drop in the rate of job creation and an uptick in unemployment. On the other hand, the ADP job survey came in hotter than expected.
May 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment moved up to 218,000 last week . That was the highest level since the week that ended on January 22. And an increase of 21,000 from the revised total of 197,000 the week before. But even though the official report is only a week old, it’s not capturing what seems to be an upward trend in the announcement of layoffs.
February 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
New jobless claims rose last week, ending a three-week streak of improvements. For the week ended Feburary 12, workers filed 248,000 initial claims for unemployment. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting 218,000 new claims. In the prior week workers filed a revised 225,000 claims.
January 6, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Applications for unemployment benefits in regular state programs rose last week to 207,000 for the week ended January 1, the Labor Department reported today, Thursday, January 6. That was up 7,000 from the prior week and above the 195,000 predicted by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The total remained near historic lows.
September 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state unemployment programs rose last week to 351,000 for the week ended September 18, the Labor Department reported today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a slight decline in the weekly number to 320,000. The total for the prior week was revised to 335,000. Continuing claims in regular state unemployment programs ended the week of September 11 at 2.845 million against expectations for 2.6 million. The prior weeks total was revised to 2.714 million,
July 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs rose by 2,000 to 373,000 for the week ended July 3, the Labor Department reported today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for initial claims to drop to 350,000. Now this may be disappointing to those hoping for evidence that the recovery from the pandemic recession nearly complete and that the economy is going from one strength to the next, but the data are a very thin reed to use to support headlines about growth worries in the economy like those I’ve seen today.
July 1, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs fell by 51,000 to 364,000 for the week ended June26, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for 388,000 new claims. The drop to 364,000 still left initial claims above the level before the pandemic.
