January 26, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today, January 26, in its post Open Market Committee press release the Federal Reserve said it would “soon” be appropriate to raise interest rates, as inflation runs above policymakers’ preferred target and the job market strengthens. The Fed left interest rates unchanged with the benchmark at 0% to 0.25%. The Fed also left its schedule in place to end its bond buying program in March. And promised to shrink its balance sheet holdings (most probably by not replacing bonds in its portfolio when they mature) “in a predictable manner.”
January 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
According to stock market history, stock investors should be “happy” that the Federal Reserve is about to start raising interest rates. Stocks have risen at an average annualized rate of 9% during the 12 Federal Reserve interest rate increase cycles since the 1950s and delivered positive returns in 11 of those instances, Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief investment officer told Bloomberg. There’s one exception. The 1972-1974 period, which coincided with the 1973-1975 recession. Which may, unfortunately, be more applicable to the current period than all those other historical examples.
January 22, 2022 | Daily JAM |
When the Federal Reserve talks everybody listens. Although it’s extremely unlikely that the Fed will say anything of market-moving import after the Wednesday, January 26, meeting of its Open Market Committee. And it’s even less likely that the Fed will do anything. For any action and any meaningful commentary investor and traders will have to wait for the Fed’s March 16 meeting.
January 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
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January 18, 2022 | Daily JAM |
The yield on the 10-year Treasury popped to 1.87%, a jump to 9 basis points on the day (and now 47 basis points in a month. It takes 100 basis points to make one percentage point.) Speculation is running rampant, and the herd is running with it, that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by more than 25 basis points at its March 16 meeting. Can you say “50 basis point rate increase”?
January 13, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-seventh YouTube video “3 Sectors to Avoid After the Fed Tightens” went up today.
January 11, 2022 | Daily JAM |
The big news out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s told Congress appearance before the Senate today (President Joe Biden has nominated him for another term as head of the Fed) was that if inflation doesn’t come down, the Fed would more aggressively raise interest rates.“If we see inflation persisting at high levels, longer than expected, if we have to raise interest rates more over time, then we will,” Powell said in a Senate Banking Committee hearing. Yep, the Fed will fight inflation. “Dog bites man.” Film at 11.
January 7, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Non-farm payrolls grew by 199,000 in December (and a revised 249,000 in November) the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the U.S. economy to add 450,000 jobs in the month. The official unemployment rate fell to 3.9% from 4.2% in November and an expected 4.1%.
January 5, 2022 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Today, the Federal Reserve released its minutes from its December 15 meeting of its interest-rate setting body the Federal Open Market Committee. Investors and traders didn’t like what they thought they heard–a growing consensus on a first interest rate increase at the March meeting.
December 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Looking ahead at 2022, it’s not too hard to list the forces that will drive the financial markets. Putting those forces together and blocking out a schedule for their effects on the stock market. Well, that’s a lot harder. But let me try. Here’s my take on what’s ahead for 2022–Part 1 anyway
December 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos, Volatility |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-first YouTube video “Why the Fed is bluffing on interest rates” went up today.
December 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Mid Term |
In late November non-resident cash flows to emerging market assets, excluding China, turned negative for the first time since March 2020 and the Pandemic global economic dip, according to the Institute of International Finance.
