January 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy shed 140,000 jobs in December. That’s the first monthly job loss in eight months. Economists had expected the economy to pick up a very modest 50,000 jobs in the month. The official unemployment rate held at 6.7%.
January 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
The stock market is in the midst of euphoria at the prospect that unified Democratic control of the White House and Congress will mean more fiscal stimulus–those $2,000 checks for a start–increased aid to cities, and increased spending (maybe) on infrastructure and to combat global warming. The bond market not so much.
November 22, 2020 | Daily JAM |
Thursday action by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to terminate the Federal Reserve’s access to $195 billion in backup funding on December 31 will just increase the volatility in a bond market that was already experiencing a tug of war between expectations for faster growth in 2021 (and hence higher interest rates and lower bond prices) and worries about an economic slowdown in the coronavirus economy and Congressional inaction on any virus stimulus package (and hence lower interest rates and higher bond prices.) The tug of war will play out in the short holiday week which packs big funding activities by the Treasury into the first two days of the week. Monday and Tuesday will see the auction of nearly $200 billion in 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year Treasuries.
November 21, 2020 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Mid Term |
On Thursday night, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent a letter to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell announcing that he was not going to extend beyond December 31 the emergency lending support that the Federal Reserve using as a backstop in its programs to stabilize the bond market. In March, Congress ha earmarked $454 billion to support Fed lending programs as part of that months coronavirus package. The Fed, ever reluctant to take losses onto its own balance sheet, had used the Treasury cash to stand behind loan programs for medium size businessses and municipalities. Much of that money earmarked by Congress has never actually been extended to the Fed, but the Treasury did earmark $195 billion for specific loan programs at the Fed. It’s that money that Mnuchin now says will no longer be available to the Fed after December 31.
November 14, 2020 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend |
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Stocks, by...
November 5, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today, November 5, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee decided to keep the target for the federal funds interest rate in the 0% to 0.25% range where it's been since March. And to continue bond purchases at the current rate of $120 billion a month. In other...
October 19, 2020 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
Last week Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles suggested that the Federal Reserve may need to buy Treasury and other bonds forever. Quantitative easing isn't a temporary measure to assure bond market stability during the coronavirus recession,...
September 29, 2020 | Daily JAM, KCAC, Mid Term, Special Reports, Volatility |
Yikes. Does this market have enough volatility for you? And I think that volatility will only get worse over the next two to six months, I can't remember a market with so much potential to move up or down in big relatively short-term volatility as this one. Just as...
September 27, 2020 | Daily JAM |
... junk bond sales and prices to be a key indicator of cash flows in the market--and of worries about a new surge in coronavirus cases this fall. Until this past week companies continued to raise huge sums--$18 billion in the week ended on September 18--in the market...
September 16, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
At 2:30 p.m. New York time, about the time the Federal Reserve issued its press statement on today's meeting of the Fed's interest rate setting body the Open Market Committee and about the time when Fed chair Jerome Powell issued his comments on the meeting, stocks...
September 13, 2020 | Daily JAM |
...nothing of consequence from the Federal Reserve when it ends its September meeting on Wednesday, September 16. At least that's the market consensus right now. Which means that if the Fed makes adds a statement on inflation, or interest rates, or about the economy,...
August 27, 2020 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed |
As anticipated in Wednesday's rally--the Standard & Poor's 500 climbed 1.02% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.73%--Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday announced that going forward the Fed would let inflation rise to above its current target of 2% from...
