What now for Treasuries and their ETFs? Should you be buying even at record low yields? I’m adding shares of Vanguard’s 1-3 year Treasury ETF
I'd wager that almost nobody today is buying U.S. Treasuries for their yield. The yield on the 10-year Treasury broke below 1% to 0.9043% for the first time EVER. The 10-year finished the day with a yield of 1.01%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury fell to a low of...Oops!”Emergency” interest rate cut spurs U.S. stock sell off as Fed creates negative feedback loop
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced an "emergency" 50 basis point cut to its benchmark interest rate. The cut left the Fed benchmark with a range of 1% to 1.25%. The move comes ahead of the Fed's regular meeting on March 18. The interest rate cut, which usually...
Most likely stock market trend over next two weeks?
Remember, Buy on the rumor; sell on the news. I think that's the most likely pattern for U.S. stocks over the next two weeks. With the 4.6% gain for the Standard & Poor's 500 on Monday, March 2, U.S. stocks regained almost half of the 11% they had lost in the last...
Trick or trend: Now financial markets are looking for a 50 basis point cut at the March 18 meetng
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. I hope that...
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
... the worsening news on the spread of the coronavirus to push yields on U.S. Treasuries even lower as investors and traders look for safe havens. On Friday the yield on the 30-year Treasury set a new all-time low below 1.90% before closing the day at 1.91%. The...
Unsustainable debt a danger? But it’s so far away, the markets say
Nobody wants to hear that U.S. government and consumer debt aren't sustainable. Not President Donald Trump. Not the financial markets. Today, February 11, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that it was important to...
Gold in ETFs nears record; what’s next for the yellow metal?
Gold held by ETFs (exchange-traded funds) hit the highest level in seven years on Tuesday as investors and traders piled into the traditional hedge against uncertainty and stock market volatility. Worldwide gold holdings in ETFs rose to 2,561.2 tons as of Tuesday, the...
There’s no inflation, the Federal Reserve says. You feel that’s wrong–and know what? You’re actually right
Two days after the last Federal Reserve meeting on December 11--where they told us again that inflation continues to fall below the Fed's 2% threshold and that, therefore, there's no inflation to worry about--I walked into my favorite New York bagel shop, Absolute...
India’s central bank flashes warning sign for all global financial markets
Of course, the Reserve Bank of India didn't mean to issue a warning to all global financial markets. The minutes of the central bank's December 3-5 meeting, released today, focus on the need to hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.15% after delivering 135 basis...Fed keeps interest rates steady; Treasury yields and dollar slip slightly
As expected the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.5% to 1.75% today. The median forecast from Federal Reserve officials pointed to no change in interest rates through 2020. “Our economic outlook remains a favorable one despite global...
The dangers in a highly correlated market
Measures of volatility such as the VIX "fear index," the ratio of the implied volatility of S&P 500 put and call options, and the demand in the options market for protection against low-probability events, all say that investors and traders believe this is a...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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