March 7, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank futures markets have started to raise the odds that the bank will start raising its benchmark deposit interest rate beginning in April 2018. The market was putting the odds of an April increase at 20% last month. Those odds have now climbed to 40%, according to Bloomberg.
March 5, 2017 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Short Term |
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March 4, 2017 | Uncategorized |
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March 3, 2017 | Uncategorized |
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March 3, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Janet Yellen’s speech today in front of the Executives’ Club of Chicago isn’t likely to disappoint those who were thinking that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its March 15 meeting. Calculations on the CME Fed Watch site show the Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in an 81.9% chance of an increase in interest rates at the March 15 meeting. That’s up from a 77.5% reading yesterday
March 2, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
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March 1, 2017 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
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March 1, 2017 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
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February 28, 2017 | Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Tomorrow morning we’ll see if Trump said enough about the subjects near and dear to Wall Street’s heart–less regulation of the financial sector and lower corporate taxes–to keep the post-Trump-victory rally going. But the real important reaction, the one that I’ll be watching most closely will come from the Federal Reserve
February 24, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Sales of new homes climbed in January from December’s disappointment–climbing 3.7% to a 555,000 annualized rate–but still fell short, modestly, of forecasts. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for an annualized rate of 571,000. I don’t think there’s anything in these numbers to cause a revision in thinking about interest rates at the Federal Reserve.
February 23, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Odds from the Fed funds futures market are now pricing in a 63% chance of a May 3 increase in interest rates from the Federal Reserve. At the beginning of February odds of a May increase were just 49%. Odds are 38% for a move on March 15 and 75% for a June 14 increase.
February 22, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
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