Did Intel and Amazon finally break the sell on earnings beat pattern today?

Did Intel and Amazon finally break the sell on earnings beat pattern today?

April 26, 2018 | AMZN, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing | 5 comments

Okay, this obviously isn’t a Morning Briefing. I wanted to wait and catch the earnings announcements from Amazon, Intel, and Microsoft. All three beat earnings estimates–but this market hasn’t been very generous in rewarding earnings surprises (after Netflix) that is.  The key tests here are to see what the shares did in after-hours trading, after investors and traders saw the earnings news, and to see how the market treats these beats tomorrow.

Trick or Trend: Where’s the volatility? Try the bond market

Trick or Trend: Where’s the volatility? Try the bond market

October 29, 2017 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Volatility | 32 comments

Last week’s drop has again led to the question “So where’s the volatility?” After all it’s not like there aren’t dangers in this world that might lead a trader to bid up the price of protecting against those dangers. It’s certainly not in the VIX, which looks for volatility in the S&P 500 future. But there’s actually plenty out there. It’s just all in the Treasury futures market where traders are hedging their bets on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries big time. The implied volatility in those futures markets has soared in the last couple of weeks.

Tech breakdown starts to look serious

Tech breakdown starts to look serious

September 25, 2017 | Daily JAM, Volatility | 0 comments

The conventional wisdom at the end of last week was that we were witnessing a rotation out of tech shares and into financials and small cap stocks. In other words, nothing to get  too concerned about. Apple (AAPL) was a special case as surveys of retail channels showed weak sales for the iPhone 8. Today, though, the concern is a bit more serious.