The odds for an earnings season dip just increased

Disturbing background for the third quarter earnings season that starts this week raises the odds for a dip on earnings news over the next few weeks. Wall Street analysts cut their estimates for 2011 earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 in September, according to Bloomberg. That’s the first decline in quarterly earnings estimates since June 2009.

An unexpected thing that could stop this rally

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Where does the rally go from here?

Why have stocks rallied so strongly in September? I don’t think it’s got anything to do with currently observable improvement in the economy. I think what we’re seeing is investors—mostly hedge funds—who had bet that the economy was going to sour reversing that bet to get at least neutral on the economy’s prospects over the next six months.

We all tend to look first for fundamental reasons for

Stocks finally take out the top of the trading range

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Stocks shift back into worry mode

A plunge in Germany trumped good news from the United States this morning. In Germany, the index of investor expectations from the Zew Center for European Economic Research fell to a negative 4.3 in September from 14 in August. In the United States retail sales excluding autos retail sales climbed 0.6%. That was twice as much as forecast.

Is the economy stronger than the numbers say?

Is the economy stronger than the numbers say?

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