Markets can’t decide what today’s news from Greece means

This morning markets were down on news that the troika of the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission, and the European Central Bank had rejected 3 billion euros of proposed cuts to Greek spending on the grounds that they were too vague. And then markets rallied on publication of an article saying that German chancellor Angela Merkel had changed her mind on Greece and now wants to do everything she can to avoid a Greek exit from the euro.

Today’s rally is built on traders deciding to avoid event risk after Draghi says the ECB will defend the euro

ECB President Draghi’s comments this morning reminded traders that the central bank meeting is just a week away and that the European Central Bank could take action that would put everybody who has made money in recent weeks betting against the euro, and Spanish and Italian bonds, and European stocks in danger of giving back all or most of their gains.