Negative economic numbers from both China and United States this morning
I'd give the edge to China in the "Whose news is worse?" sweepstakes this morning. For April China's retail sales rose 7.2% year over year--good news except that economists were projecting an 8.6% increase and that March showed 8.7% year over year growth. The April...
Rational self-interest argues for a successful conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks in the long run; in the short run it argues that the talks will fall apart first
It is clearly in the self interest of both President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to reach an agreement that would bring the U.S.-China trade war to an end. In the long-run. That same calculus, however, argues that in the short run both leaders will let the...
Trick or trend: Crucial pivot point approaches for U.S.manufacturing
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Sunday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. This week's...
Economy added surprisingly strong 263,000 jobs in April; wage gains, labor participation are red flags
The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April. (The March jobs number was revised downward.) The gains for April exceeded all estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. In March the Federal Reserve had forecast that...
More of the same in today’s economic data: low inflation, good growth in consumer spending, but lagging incomes
Put today's numbers on the economy together with those in Friday's first quarter GDP report and the picture that emerges is of a U.S. economy growing at s very solid rate with declining inflation. But where the trends on consumer incomes and spending suggest, maybe,...
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
... to be drowning in economic data. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, May 1, isn't even the high point of the data week. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged so it's Chair Jerome Powell's press conference...
GDP growth surprises at 3.2% in first quarter; economists question sustainability
The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% real rate in the first quarter. That's substantially stronger than the 2.2% growth in the fourth quarter and way above projections for 1.9% growth among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Inflation remained very subdued with the GDP...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
In the week ahead earnings reports will test theories about growth in specific sectors and the economy as a whole. For example, on Tuesday, April 23, we’ll get tests of the “consumer economy” with reports from Coca-Cola (KO), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Verizon (VZ). Coke is projected to show a drop of a penny to 46 cents a share from 47 cents in the year-earlier quarter. P&G is projected to pick up 4 cents a share from the first quarter of 2018 to $1.04 and Verizon is expected to see earnings move up to $1.16 a share from $1.11. Those all set, in my opinion, hurdles that are relatively easy to jump. But the growth is already so modest that any miss could throw these big consumer stocks into a year over year earnings downturn. Which would be a bad way to start the week.Â
JNJ earnings a tale of two companies
On April 16, Johnson & Johnson beat Wall Street estimates by 6 cents a share. Revenue for the first quarter of 2019 climbed 0.1% to $20.02 billion, above the $19.55 billion projected by Wall Street.But the results really reflected the very different fortunes of the company’s stagnant consumer business and its strongly growing drug business.
More signs of slower growth in industrial production, cardboard shipments, truck load volume
This morning an unexpected decline in U.S. industrial production (for March) led the parade of indicators pointing to a slowing economy. Industrial production in March fell 0.1%. This comes after a 0.1% increase in February. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had...
