Slower than expected GDP growth in the U.S.; faster than expected deflation in Europe
So which is the scarier news?
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% rate in the fourth quarter of 2014. That was down from the 5% increase in the third quarter. Inflation in the EuroZone fell to an annual negative 0.6% in January–that’s deflation folks.
U.S. growth revised upwards to 3.9% in the third quarter, but wage growth cut in half on this estimate
I’ll take it but the upward revision in third quarter U.S. GDP growth to an annualized 3.9% from the prior estimate of 3.5% isn’t without its weakness. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a downward revision to 3.3% growth
Second thoughts on U.S. GDP argue 4% isn’t 4%
Second thoughts on the startling second quarter 4% growth in U.S. GDP got overshadowed at the end of last week on news from Argentina and Portugal. But economists and Wall Street analysts have started to cut that 4% growth rate down to trend.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
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GDP pops to 3.6% in today’s second estimate, but that’s not as meaningful as it seems
Today’s release of revised third quarter GDP growth is frustratingly inconclusive—if you’re looking for, as the market is, a strong trend that might indicate which way the Fed will jump on the taper/no taper decision at its December 18 meeting
Between this morning’s two surprises, the rate cut by the ECB is a bigger deal than stronger U.S. GDP
Surprise. Actually two of them. First, the U.S. economy grew at a faster than expected 2.8% year over year pace in the third quarter. That’s up from the 2.5% rate for the second quarter. Second, the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.25% this morning from 0.5%. That takes the benchmark rate to a new historic low.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
Is better than expected 3.1% third quarter GDP growth likely to carry over to the fourth quarter?
On the third and final revision third quarter U.S. GDP growth climbed to 3.1% from 2.7% in the second revision. The consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com had looked for 2.7% on this revision. (The first estimate for growth in the third quarter came in at just 2.0%.)
At 2.8% fourth-quarter GDP growth is disappointing, but the numbers look even more worrying if you dig deeper
Is this what the Federal Reserve saw in the fourth quarter GDP numbers that made it pessimistic enough on Wednesday to say that exceptionally low interest rates will be with us until the end of 2014 instead of “just” the middle of 2013? At 2.8% headline growth was disappointing but more worrying the biggest contributor to growth in the quarter was an increase in inventories.
Case for a third quarter GDP surprise gets a bit stronger with this morning’s durables numbers
Orders for nondefense capital goods (excluding aircraft), the stuff companies buy in order to make more stuff, increased 1.1% in August after dropping 0.2% in July: there’s no evidence of the kind of collapse in capital spending that occurs when companies are getting ready for a recession.
