Trying to put a date and figure on the peak in U.S. oil production
How soon will U.S. oil production from wells in oil shale geologies peak? It’s the big question for U.S. oil producers and for a global oil market swimming in excess inventory. As long as U.S. oil production continues to increase all of OPEC’s production cuts, intended to reduce that excess supply, aren’t going to get the job done. Since October 2016, U.S. crude oil production increased by more than one million barrels per day.
Notes You Need for August 22: Euro, tax cut accounting, iPhone 8 features, Cheniere Energy, oil supplies, August trading volumes
10:20 a.m.: The euro is trading down today after the latest ZEW sentiment surveys for the Eurozone and Germany both missed expectations. The German report that a stronger euro was hitting exports. The euro traded below the recent $1.18 price against the dollar. 10:40 a.m.: There’s not much leaking out about the Republican plans for a tax cut but one idea apparently being passed around would change the accounting for things like expiring tax breaks in order to give the authors of any tax bill rom for about $450 billion in tax cuts that wouldn’t need to be offset with revenue increases.
Today’s market move looks pretty random to me–but here are a few possible trends to watch
Lots of folks out this morning trying to explain why U.S. stocks are up so strongly today after Thursday’s thrashing and two lackluster trading session on Friday and Monday. One explanation I’m hearing a lot is that President Donald Trump sounded “more” presidential in last night’s speech laying out his secret plan for continuing the war in Afghanistan. Another explanation that I’m hearing is that there are rumors of progress in Washington on the Republican tax plan. To which I say, Please… It’s August when lighter trading volumes magnify every wrinkle into the Rockies. The most likely reason that the market is up today is that it was down on Thursday and today the buy the dip trades that didn’t work on Friday and Monday are back on.
Nervous market has been hard on Nektar; hold options in my Volatility Portfolio for September news (and beyond)
Biotechs--and indeed any high price-to-earnings stocks perceived as risky--have taken more than their share of punishment in the nervous sell off of the last few weeks. Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR), for example, closed yesterday August 21 at $17.79. That's down from...
Notes You Need for August 21: Apple Music, Dow Jones 50-day moving average, Amazon two-month low, volatility
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Quiet day so far but trends intact under surface
A very subdued market so far (at 2 p.m. New York time) today. Maybe it’s the solar eclipse. After all who wants to put on a long position when the sun is about to be eaten by dragons? As of 2 p.m. the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up just 0.06%. But under the placid surface the trends that have characterized the market recently continue to work.
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
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Trick or Trend: Are small caps signaling problems with this stock market?
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Notes You Need for August 18: QCOM AI acquisition, China natural gas. retail closing, emerging market ETFs, China housing prices, Jackson Hole schedule, rig count, Facebook marketplace
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It’s come to this: Stories and rumors about staff departures at the Trump White House move the stock market
Yesterday, a rumor that Gary Cohn, the administration’s chief economist, would be leaving the White House contributed to the nerves that pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500 lower by 1.54%. (The rumor has been denied by Cohn’s office.) Today a story in the New York Times that President Donald Trump has decided to remove Stephen Bannon, chief White House strategist and the administration’s most important link to the alt-right, has contributed to a modest bounce in U.S. stocks. As of 1 p.m. New York time the S&P 500 ws ahead 0.27%.
Was yesterday’s drop just a replay of last Thursday or the start of something worse?
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