The Federal Reserve raises interest rates as expected–but the dot plot has a surprise or two.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates as expected–but the dot plot has a surprise or two.

December 13, 2017 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing | 0 comments

No surprise: The Federal Reserve raised its short-term benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.25% to 1.50% at today’s meeting. No surprise: The Fed and its outgoing chair Janet Yellen didn’t say anything new. The labor market continues to strengthen and economic growth has been solid. Overall inflation and core inflation have declined this year and are running below the Fed’s target of 2%. But there were surprises in the “dot plot.”

Notes You Need for December 13: INTC, local Chinese government fraud, bitcoin, Viagra goes generic, dollar’s rough 2017, CPI, CAT

Notes You Need for December 13: INTC, local Chinese government fraud, bitcoin, Viagra goes generic, dollar’s rough 2017, CPI, CAT

December 13, 2017 | Daily JAM, Notes You Need | 1 comment

In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. A typical item is much like this from today: “10:20 a.m.:  Intel (INTC) will cut payments under its “Intel Inside” program by 40% to 60%, according to CRN.com. Intel Inside darts to 1991 and paid OEMs and channel partners to mention Intel’s brand on products from PCs to workstations. CRN.com says that Intel will use some of the funds from this cut to invest in its data center business.”

Is 2018 the year when central banks finally start to tighten?

Is 2018 the year when central banks finally start to tighten?

December 11, 2017 | Daily JAM, Mid Term | 0 comments

Both Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are now predicting that average interest rates across the world’s advanced economies will climb to at least 1% in 2018. That might not seem like much, but remember that major economies such as Japan and the European Union now have negative interest rates. Overall the two Wall Street megabanks are telling investors to get ready for the biggest tightening of monetary policy since 2006, before the global financial crisis.

Notes You Need for December 13: INTC, local Chinese government fraud, bitcoin, Viagra goes generic, dollar’s rough 2017, CPI, CAT

Notes You Need for December 11: Tax cuts boost tech earnings, Itau Unibanco, Hong Kong rally continues, Verizon and NFL, COF

December 11, 2017 | Daily JAM, Notes You Need | 1 comment

In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. Post includes items like this from today: “Investment  bank Cowen & Co. estimates that Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook (FB) will save a combined $4.5 billion  on taxes in 2018 thanks to the Republican tax bill. The tech giants, Cowen also notes, should in addition benefit from the bill’s capex expensing provision. The investment bank sees big earnings per share gains for the companies with Amazon showing an expected earnings upside of 24%, and Alphabet and Facebook seeing 8% earnings increases.”

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates as expected–but the dot plot has a surprise or two.

Unintended consequences: Tax cuts likely to spur more aggressive Fed moves on interest rates

December 11, 2017 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing | 0 comments

I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to say anything especially revealing abut future interest rates after the Wednesday, December 13, meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in the last scheduled post-meeting press event of the Janet Yellen Federal Reserve, resolutely stay the rhetorical course. But that likely reticence isn’t stopping economists from moving toward projecting more and faster interest rate increases in 2018.