Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
We’re edging closer to a decisive either/or moment for stocks in 2025 on interest rates and earnings.
Buon Natale from Venice
Do you know how to tell it’s Christmas here in Venice?
Here comes Santa Claus?
Trading was thin for Christmas weeK. So time for Santa to put in an appearance on Wall Street? The Standard & Poor’s 500 finished near session highs, up O.79% to 5974. And Nvidia (NVDA), up 3.69%, and Meta Platforms (META), up 2.49%, helped drive an index of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps up almost 1.5%.
Last days for 2024 tax-loss selling
More than time to make the sells to harvest tax losses for 2024. It’s especially important if the volatility in some of 2024’s favorite stocks. like Nvidia (NVDA) let you to sell and then re-buy and then make sell again in 2024. Keep in mind the “wash sale” rule. The wash sale rule prohibits claiming a loss on a security if you buy the same or a “substantially identical” security within 30 days before or after the sale. Which is only a difficulty if you think that a stock you’re selling today is likely to have a huge rally by February 1. I think there are quite a few sell candidates where the shift in policy from the out-going Biden Administration to the incoming Trump Administration make getting caught in a regret rally is extremely unlikely.
Consumer confidence falls in December
The Conference Board’s gauge of costumer confidence decreased to 104.7, data released Monday showed. It was the first drop in the survey in three months. The reading of 104.7 was well below the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. More troubling to me, the survey’s measure of expectations hit a five-month low.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
Look for the the annual Santa Claus Rally this week. And if it doesn’t arrive, expect that to increase feelings of uncertainty on Wall Street as we begin 2025.
Government shutdown avoided–until March 14
From the Washington Post: President Joe Biden signed a congressional spending bill into law on Saturday morning, putting to bed the threat of a potential Christmastime government shutdown and kicking the issue for a new Congress and a new president to address in the spring.
Houses passes spending bill; now it’s up to the Senate
Tonight the House passed a spending bill to keep the government open. Th bill does not include President-elect Donald J. Trump’s demand to raise or suspend the debt ceiling. The legislation covers government funding, disaster relief and payments to farmers, but not the debt ceiling increase that Mr. Trump had insisted on. The debt ceiling issue caused a Republican revolt that sank a previous measure on Thursday.
Another vote in the House tonight
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said Friday that the House would vote on a new spending plan without President-elect Donald Trump’s demand to suspend the debt limit. A vote is expected to take place after 5 p.m. Washington time.
Now posted: The full complete all-100-days version of my Special Report: Buys and sells–and other money moves for Trump’s first 100 days.
It’s taken a while–what with the distraction of another potential government shut down. BUT IT’S ALL NOW AVAILABLE. You can find the complete version under the Special Reports tab.
Headlines say House Republicans have new plan to avert shutdown–but we don’t have a vote count yet
The plan, as of 5 p.m. Washington time, would fund the government until March 14 ad suspend the debt ceiling for 2 years. As of this moment a vote is scheduled for 6 p.m. Washington time tonight.
Just a reminder of when the debt ceiling deadline is: How about January 1, 2025
In June 2023 after a bitter fight, Congress agreed to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt limit until January 1, 2025. Yep, January 1. Which means that even if Congress can fix the government spending crisis it created by its inability/unwillingness to pass a fiscal 2025 budget, we will’ move straight into a debt ceiling crisis. As with many Congressional deadlines, the January 1 date doesn’t mean quite what it seems.
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