Daily JAM
March 7, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in February, and the unemployment rate rose just a tad to 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today
Would I prefer a decent jobs report like this–the labor market, the report said, remains solid–to a poke in the eye with a sharp stick–or big negative number? Certainly. I’m not rooting for a recession. Too much pain for too many people–especially for those of us who don’t have much to begin with. But the report is, basically, meaningless if you want to know where the economy or jobs market is now or even where it was on February 28.
March 6, 2025 | Daily JAM |
After the last year, it’s clear that investors DO need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows to avoid unpleasant climate shocks to their portfolios. For the next year, the likely forecast includes a less active hurricane season–good news for the U.S. Southeast–but higher temperatures for much of the globe–bad news for California and the U.S. West. And bad news for price volatility in agricultural commodities.
March 6, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
So first stocks sold off after President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Then stocks rallied when the White House said tariffs on auto imports from Mexico and Canada would be postponed by a month. Today, the tariff news is that higher duties on agricultural products imported from Mexico would be postponed fora month. But at the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was down 1.58% and the NASDAQ Composite was off 2.11%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, the VIX “fear index,” was up 15.27% to 25.27. There was so much going on in the financial markets today that it’s impossible to say how much of today’s decline was due to a growing realization that delays of a month are essentially insufficient to reorder supply chains constructed by years or decades of investment.
March 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LVS |
The reason to own shares of Las VEGAS sANDS (LVS0 is the strength of its position in the gaming market in Macao, and developments that look to add faster revenue growth in that market in the relative near future. Morningstar calculates that the stock is currently trading at about 20% below fair value.
The reason to sell Las Vegas Sands is that the trade war between China and the United States is likely to get worse before it gets better. And Las Vegas Sands’ operations in Macao are totally exposed to changes in policy and regulations from the Chinese government.
March 5, 2025 | Daily JAM |
Russia’s oil-tax revenue in February slumped by almost a quarter year-on-year, suggesting producers have reined in output to meet the country’s OPEC+ quota.
March 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, GM |
President Donald Trump is exempting automakers from newly imposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada for one month, the White House said Wednesday, after pleas from U.S. automakers who have spent years building supply chains that stretch across international borders.
March 5, 2025 | CMI, Daily JAM, Long Term, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
Sales of the heaviest category of trucks in North America collapsed in February. ACT Research reported on Wednesday that February preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were down 34% year-over-year to 18,300 units.
March 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
The odds of a U.S. recession are still low, but an increasing number of Wall Street economic models say the odds are climbing.
March 4, 2025 | Daily JAM |
Two examples I’ve seen today suggest that consumers will feel the pain very soon.
March 4, 2025 | Daily JAM |
Here’s a list from the New York Times of what’s been proposed by the Trump Administration that’s still pending.
March 4, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
President Donald Trump’s deadline passed without a deal and today 25% tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products–which brought the total tax on some Chinese products to 45%–went into effect. Retaliation by China and Canada was swift–Mexico opted to wait until Sunday to respond. China imposed tariffs of up to 15 percent on a raft of U.S. farm products–including soybeans, pork and chicken, and grains. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed to fight and win a trade war with the United States.Canada will impose tariffs on roughly $107 billion worth of U.S. products. About $21 billion worth of those goods would be hit immediately, he said, with the rest taking effect in 21 days. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that her government was prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs. She told reporters that she will announce them Sunday.
March 3, 2025 | BYDDF, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts |
I don’t see any way the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China and the now almost certain global trade war will mean anything good for BYD (BYDDF) the leading global maker of electric and hybrid cars And apparently the stock market agreed. Today’ March 3, shares of BYD dropped 11.05% in New York trading as President Donald Trump confirmed that higher tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China would go into effect tomorrow March 4. So I will be selling shares of BYD out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow. March 4. The position was up 54% since I initiated it on December 28, 2023.
