Mid Term

Markets increasingly think Fed’s end of bond buying will be no big deal

Markets increasingly think Fed’s end of bond buying will be no big deal

I wouldn’t call it the consensus yet, but financial market thinking seems headed toward a belief that the end of the Fed’s $120 billion a month in purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed assets won’t be a big deal. Certainly not enough to upset the bond market or produce another temper tantrum. The belief hinges on forecast of demand and supply that sees them roughly in balance even after the Fed stops its buying. An end to Fed purchases would be a significant hit to demand. But it looks like the U.S. Treasury will be cutting back on bond auctions as about the same time. And that would leave demand and supply roughly where they are now.

Resurgent virus takes a bite out of China’s GDP

Resurgent virus takes a bite out of China’s GDP

With China closing tourist sites, cancelling flights and beginning the hard work of testing all 12 million residents of Wuhan (again), economic activity in China is taking a hit. (And don’t forget horrific flooding in parts of the country.) Securities firm Nomura lowered projections for third-quarter GDP growth to 5.1% (from a previous 6.4%) and for the fourth quarter to 4.4% growth down from 5.3%

Q2 GDP grew by an annualized 6.5%, which gets the economy back to where it was before the pandemic–now for the tough part

Q2 GDP grew by an annualized 6.5%, which gets the economy back to where it was before the pandemic–now for the tough part

U.S. gross domestic product grew 1.6% in the second quarter of the year, the Commerce Department said today, July 29. That’s up from 1.5% growth in the first quarter of 2021. On an annualized basis, second-quarter growth was 6.5 percent. Which brings the economy back to where it was before the pandemic (adjusted for inflation.) That’s a remarkable quick rebound. After the Great Recession ended in 2009, it took two years for the economy to recover the ground that it has lost. But the recovery now faces two tougher jobs: replacing all the growth that didn’t happen because of the pandemic and fixing problems like anemic productivity growth and soaring economic inequality that troubled the U.S. economy before the pandemic recession. .

Dems and Reps agree on $1 trillion infrastructure deal–now for the vote

Dems and Reps agree on $1 trillion infrastructure deal–now for the vote

Senate Democrats and Republicans on Wednesday appeared to clinch a deal that would invest roughly $1 trillion into the nation’s infrastructure. The new agreement — announced separately by two of its lead negotiators, Senators Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), ends the wrangling over the policy specifics in a bipartisan infrastructure deal outlined back in June. The agreement puts the Senate on track to hold a key procedural vote today, July 28, that would allow the chamber to actually begin debating the contents of the infrastructure measure

New trouble with JNJ vaccine is bad news for the stock and worse news for efforts to reach “herd immunity”

New trouble with JNJ vaccine is bad news for the stock and worse news for efforts to reach “herd immunity”

The Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) coronavirus vaccine has been linked to a rare side effect, the immune system disorder Guillain-Barré syndrome. Of 12.8 million J&J doses administered in the United States, there have been about 100 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome, according to preliminary reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Food and Drug Administration plans to add a warning about Guillain-Barré to the J&J vaccine, The Washington Post has reported.

Special Report 5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market–Thank you market for one more (#2) cheap hedge and one more (#4) stock pick

Special Report 5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market–Thank you market for one more (#2) cheap hedge and one more (#4) stock pick

Today’s installment includes one hedge (on the ViX) and one stock pick (Lam Research.) Now if you’ve been following along with the logic that I’ve laid out in this Special Report, you know that stocks face months of potential volatility around the Fed’s June 16 meeting (What will the Fed say about ending its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases?), the August global central bankers confab in Jackson Hole (Will the Fed use the occasion, as it has done in the past, to indicate a coming change in interest rate policy?), the Fed’s September 22 meeting (Will the Fed be content to say nothing with the next “important” meeting not until December?) and then the central bank’s December 15 meeting.) That’s a large number of occasions that could set the stock market to worrying again. And then, of course, there’s OPEC and the price of oil, the battle over the recently announced Biden budget, the continued logjam on infrastructure spending, and fact that the pandemic is still running at full speed in countries such as India (and who knows what the return of cold weather and forced winter “togetherness” will do to infection rates in the developed economies of the northern hemisphere.) At 16.74 on the VIX, you don’t need a panic to produce a profit on higher volatility. The VIX was at 22.18 on May 19. And then there are the even higher VIX levels of 27.59 on May 12, 28.57 on Marcy 4, and 28.89 on February 25.

Biggest oil and climate change news yesterday wasn’t at ExxonMobil or Chevron

Biggest oil and climate change news yesterday wasn’t at ExxonMobil or Chevron

Yesterday, May 26, a Dutch court ordered Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) to cut its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared with 2019 levels in a case brought by climate activist groups. The Hague District Court ruled that the Anglo-Dutch energy company has a duty to care about reducing greenhouse gas emissions and that its current reduction plans were not concrete enough. If that language sounds like the court is declaring a company has a fiduciary duty (to future generations? to current populations? to the earth?) to reduce emissions, you’re not mistaken.

Special Report: 5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market (4 picks and 2 hedges as of June 4)

Special Report: 5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market (4 picks and 2 hedges as of June 4)

2021 will be a very different year from 2020. Or to be more exact the second half of 2021 and 2022 will be very different. We’re looking at going from a financial market where investors and traders believed the Federal Reserve was on their side with cash and more cash to push the prices of financial assets higher and then higher some more to a market where everyone is asking when will the Fed take th punch bowl away and shut down the party.Let me be clear. At this point it’s not the certainty that the Fed will reduce its $120 billion in monthly bond buying in this exact month or that, or the certainty that the Fed will start raising interest rates before the end of 2022, say, but rather the worry that those events are on the calendar, that they will change the trend in the market, and that no one can predict when the turn will materialize.FDR said “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.” To which the market right now says “Exactly.” Look at this “fear and worry calendar” that I’ve put together. And today I’ve got 3 picks and one hedge for this market

Call it the Apple problem although it isn’t limited to Apple: Skyworks post-earnings tumble is example of the market’s huge expectations worry

Call it the Apple problem although it isn’t limited to Apple: Skyworks post-earnings tumble is example of the market’s huge expectations worry

After the close yesterday, April 29, Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), a key Apple supplier and a maker of radio frequency chips for smartphones and WiFi networking equipment, reported earnings of $2.37 a share on sales of $1.17 billion for quarter that closed on April 2 2021. That beat–slightly–Wall Street projections for earnings of $2.35 a share and sales of $1.15 billion. Year over year Skyworks earnings climbed 77% and sales rose by 53%. And what happened to the stock in after-hours trading? It got punished. Shares dropped to $183.37, a loss of $14.49 a share from the day’s close at $197.86. That’s a loss of 7.32%. In a market driven by expectations for constantly higher growth, I think you can see the problem.