Mid Term
China bond defaults head for another record year
With 15 defaults in November, total onshore bond defaults have hit $120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion)in 2019, according to Bloomberg. That's close to the 121.9 billion yuan record set in 2018. While the $17.1 billion in onshore defaults seems insignificant compared...
Trump says, No hurry to strike a trade deal with China in 2020, and markets tumble
“I don’t have a deadline,” Trump told reporters today in London. “I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now and we’ll see whether not the deal is going to be right.” And with that financial markets that...
Earnings retreat for the fourth quarter?
Sorry. A draft version of this was published prematurely yesterday. Here is the actual final version. Wall Street analysts always cut their earnings estimates as a quarter progresses. (Which then lets lots of companies beat forecasts when they actually report.) But...
Data clash on U.S. manufacturing–contraction or expansion?
According to the Purchasing Managers Index from the Institute for Supply Management the U.S.manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction in November with the index dropping to 48.1 in November from 48.3 in October. That was a fourth-straight monthly...
China’s Xi Jinping demonstrates why ending the U.S.-China trade war will be so tough
In spite of all the delays and all the contradictory claims I remain convinced that a Part 1 trade agreement between the U.S. and China will get signed. Maybe not in the remainder of 2019 but certainly within the early part of 2020. A wider agreement to settle issues...Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about...
Fed report notes that continuing low interest rates could threaten U.S. (and global) financial security.
Well, duh. Yesterday Fed chairman Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee that"we're in a world of much lower interest rates." He seemed to shrug his shoulders at the prospect as if to say, Hey that's what it is and the Fed doesn't have much power to change that...
Today I’ve posted the finally completed and corrected Special Report: 3 ways to higher income in a low yield desert
Sorry this took so long but the complete Special Report with all three strategy recommendations is finally up. You can find it in the Special Reports section of the JubakAssetManagement.com site. To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including,...
Europe’s problem looks to be German complacency on growth
German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz brushed off warnings from the International Monetary Fund that the European Union and especially Germany need to come up with emergency plans to see it through a growth slowdown. “Given elevated downside risks, contingency plans...
Treasury yields climb again–how far will they go?
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed another 10 basis points today to 1.85%. The yield is now up 32 basis points in the last month, although it is still down 135 basis points in a year. That leaves the yield on the 10-year Treasury 40 basis points above its...
Enthusiasm for this quarter’s earnings; worry about guidance for 2020
Today the Standard & Poor's 500 matched a 12-week high and made yet another assault on a new all-time record. Better than expected earnings have been the market driver. Some 81% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported for the quarter so far have beat...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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