Morning Briefing
June 15, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, You Might Have Missed |
The projections released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, June 15–the so-called Dot Plot–show a central bank that sees a tough 2022, especially on interest rates and inflation, but a definite improvement in 2024. This fits with the developing Wall Street narrative that sees inflation dropping in 2023 and 2024 and the Fed looking to cut interest rates in 2024.
June 15, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-fifth YouTube video “Fed Hike Makes the Market Happy” went up today. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points today–instead of the 50 points so widely expected just weeks ago–and stocks rallied. Here’s the Wall Street narrative that explains why.
June 13, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The latest Consumer Expectations survey (that is for May) from the New York Federal Reserve shows U.S. households’ anticipate inflation will rise at a 6.6% annual rate over the next year. That’s up from April expectations for a 6.3% rate. The May anticipated rate matches March results in the survey for the highest inflation anticipation on record.
June 10, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Headline Consumer Price Index inflation in May rose to a new annual high rate of 8.6% in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, June 10. Headline prices rose 1% from April. The big drivers were, as expected, food (with prices up at a 10.1% annual rate) and energy. The core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 0.6% in May from April and at a 6% annual rate.
June 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today, Wednesday, June 8, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fueling rapid inflation and slowing global growth. “We are not projecting a recession ” at this time, said Mathias Cormann, the organization’s secretary general, but the organization lowered its estimate of global growth to 3% in 2022 from the 4.% percent it predicted at the end of last year. It estimated that average inflation among the organization’s member nations was likely to run close to 9% this year, double its previous forecast.
June 7, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The World Bank cut its forecast for global economic expansion in 2022–again–to 2.9%. The institution warned of years of above-average inflation and below-average growth ahead. That combination, the bank said, has the potential destabilize low- and middle-income economies.
June 6, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
As of June 3, FactSet reports, analysts had cut their earnings estimates during the first two months of the quarter for second quarter earnings by companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 by 1.3% to $55.36 from $56.06. How significant is that? And what does it tell investors about the second quarter?
June 2, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists had expected the economy to add 318.000 jobs for the month. In April the economy added a revised 436,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.6%. Economists had expected a drop to 3.5%.
June 2, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Another Federal Reserve official talked the interest rate increase talk today. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard told CNBC that expectations for half-percentage-point increases in interest rates this month and next were reasonable, and saw no case for pausing the central bank’s tightening campaign afterward. “From where I sit today, market pricing for 50 basis points, potentially in June and July, from the data we have in hand today, seems like a reasonable path.”
June 1, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Oil prices went a strong NOWHERE today, June 1, as the oil market struggled with news of the end of lockdowns in China, which would lead to higher demand, and speculation that OPEC would act to increase production. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed up 0.06% to $114.74 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude rose 0.17% to $115.80.
May 31, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
The European Union has finally found a way to agree on a partial ban on oil imports from Russia. The group has agreed to an immediate ban on imports arriving by sea. That covers about two-thirds of Russian imports. To get Hungary’s vote for the partial ban, the EU agreed to exempt oil transported through the Druzhba pipeline.
May 30, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
International benchmark Brent crude surged past $120 a barrel Monday as China eased its anti-virus lockdowns, the European Union neared a plan to ban sea-borne oil imports of Russian crude, and U.S. drivers headed toward the summer travel season. U.S. markets were closed for Memorial Day but in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Intermediate for July delivery was up 1.8% at 2:30 p.m. to $117.17 a barrel. Brent crude for July delivery rose $2.24 a barrel to $121.67. That was the highest close since March 8.
