September 25, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
The manufacturing sector--thanks to the U.S.-China trade war--continues to slow China’s economy. But the real problem may be an underperformance in the services sector that makes it impossible for that sector to pick up the slack. The end result is that the third...
September 24, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Stocks were down this morning with the Standard & Poor's 500 falling 1.01% as of 1 p.m. New York time and bonds were up with Treasury prices climbing to send the yield on the 10-year Treasury down 8 basis points to 1.64%. The move down wasn't the result of a...
September 23, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Some days U.S. stocks move decidedly higher on positive news about the global economy or speculation that the U.S-China trade war may be moving toward a negotiated resolution. Other days U.S. stocks head decidedly lower on bad news about the global (or U.S.) economy...
September 19, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Tomorrow, Friday, September 20, the Federal Reserve will buy another $75 billion in the overnight repo market. That brings the total this week to $203 billion in the Fed's effort to stabilize the short-term markets that Wall Street uses to finance its purchases of...
September 19, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Today, September 19, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) cut the growth projections it had made for the global economy just four months ago. The world economy is forecast to grow at just a 2.9% rate in 2019 and 3.0% in 2020 after growing...
September 18, 2019 | Morning Briefing, Short Term |
If $53 billion doesn't work, try $75 billion more. The Federal Reserve injected $75 billion into U.S. money markets today after yesterday's injection of $53 billion didn't solve the problem. The problem is that the big Wall Street banks are finding that digesting a...
September 17, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On Tuesday the Federal Reserve intervened to supply liquidity to the short-term market for Money Market funds by buying $53.2 billion in securities. Late Tuesday the Fed said it was prepared to buy another $75 billion in the report market Wednesday morning. The...
September 17, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
On Tuesday the Federal Reserve bought $53.2 billion of short-term securities to stabilize the market for money market securities. A funding shortage on Monday and Tuesday had led rates on overnight general collateral repurchase agreements to climb as high as 10% and...
September 16, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Oil prices are higher--much higher--today after a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq processing center knocked out 50% of the country's oil production. As of 1 p.m. New York time U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was up 13.58% to $62.30 a barrel. International...
September 13, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
One way to understand of the recent market action--one way that makes sense to me--is to think of it as a big short squeeze. The drop in Treasury yields and the climb in Treasury prices went to far in August with Treasuries showing their biggest monthly gain in the...
September 12, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
If it had come to a formal vote, there's a good chance that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi would have faced defeat in his efforts to revive quantitative easing at the central bank. But the bank doesn't usually hold a formal vote on a issue like this and...
September 11, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The resignation/firing of John Bolton, a long-time advocate of military action against Iran, as National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump, has send oil prices tumbling today. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate is down 2.42% to $56.01 a barrel....