Videos
October 5, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundredth-ninety-second YouTube video “A Bounce to a Rally” went up today. To turn a bounce into a bear market rally, we need two things- but before we get to that, let’s look a bit closer at this latest bounce we’re seeing in the markets. The S&P was up on Monday by 2.59%, the Dow climbed 2.66%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.27%. On Tuesday the S&P 500 gained 3.06%, the Dow 2.80%, and the NASDAQ 3.34%. Bonds are down again and 10 Year Treasuries, which had risen to nearly 4% last week, were down to 3.5% Tuesday. How do we turn this bounce of a couple of days, into a longer-term Bear Market rally that could go as far as the end of the year? Well, we need two things. Number one: we need good news – that is bad news – for the jobs number coming out on Friday. In August, unemployment moved up to about a 3.7% rate from 3.5% in July and if that trend continues, I think Wall Street will fall back on its favorite theory that the Fed will stop raising rates and therefore Buy stocks and bonds! The second thing we need is good inflation numbers, or at the very least, a continuation of a downward trend of headline inflation, leading investors to believe the Fed has inflation under control and will therefore stop raising rates. I think that belief is wrong, but that logic may lead us into a bear market rally until 2023.
October 4, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-ninety-first YouTube video: “Trend of the Week Housing Prices Fall, Finally” went up today This week’s Trend of the Week is “Housing Prices Fall, Finally.” We’ve recently seen a big increase in mortgage rates, but the housing market hadn’t really slowed, until July. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the year-over-year housing prices went up 18.1% in June of this year, and 15.8% in July. While it’s still a big increase over last year, there is a noticeable deceleration. Month-to-month housing prices in the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller Index fell 0.4% in July, marking the first drop in month-to-month housing prices since 2012. If you look at Lennar Corporation (LEN), a good representation of the housing and building market, you can see the decline in mid-August where investors started to truly believe home and building prices are indeed going to fall. Watch the housing sector. It’s the first place where the Fed’s interest rate increase is having a tangible effect. We’ll continue to see housing prices fall as mortgage rates go up. And it’s an early sign that the Fed’s tightening is working to slow the economy.
September 28, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-eighty-ninth YouTube video: “From a Bear Market to a Global Financial Crisis” went up today. To me, it increasingly looks like we’re going from a bear market to a global financial crisis. The signs of an upcoming global financial crisis are there: volatility in the currency markets, the decline in nearly every currency against the dollar, the World Bank lowering its estimates of economic growth around the world, and global inflation due to food and energy. A good way to track the “progress” toward a global financial crisis0 is to look at emerging markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) both saw accelerated declines starting around September 12, and South Korea has been down since mid-August. Many key emerging markets rely on in-flows of foreign capital to balance their accounts but the flow of that money has slowed, as investors are risking less internationally and keeping their funds closer to home. Right now, we’re seeing a global “Whac-a-Mole”, where individual countries pop up as problems. But if more financial individual crises pop up simultaneously and at a more rapid pace, we’ll have a global financial crisis on our hands. Oh, goody. Something more to worry about.
September 22, 2022 | Daily JAM, JO, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Quick Pick: JO (NYSEARCA: JO) otherwise known as Barclays iPath Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN Series B. As I’ve shown you in the video, I’m growing my own coffee plant to head off the coffee shortages we’re seeing now (first beans projected in 2028; enough for a cup? 2032), and will likely continue to see long-term. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of coffee but its inventory is projected to drop to about 7 million bags by March, (well below the comfort level of about 9-12 million bags.) A long-lasting drought is to blame for the shortages–and that dicey weather is likely to be with us for quite a while. Meanwhile, global coffee consumption is going up by 1.5% projected this year (2% last year). While JO is volatile since it trades on the commodity price, what interests me about it at the moment is that it’s NOT correlated to anything else like interest rates or inflation (though it definitely contributes to inflation as coffee drinkers well know.) This ETN will continue to go up, even if the market goes down. (JO is a member of my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription JubakAM.com site.)
September 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-seventy-seventh YouTube video: “Trend of the Week Seasonal Patterns” went up today. For today’s Trend of the Week, we’re looking at the calendar and yearly stock patterns. September is notoriously the worst-performing month of the year for the S&P since the 1950s. October is a scary month because of s history of crashes and one-day plunges during the month. That history does leave investors spooked. But! Starting around November, we get the January effect, where small-cap stocks tend to go up, and tech stocks get a lift from sales during the third and fourth quarters. You can also look for positive earnings news at about this time of year. around this time–though this year’s retail outlook is not great. Overall, things may start getting better as the seasons start to change.
September 15, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-seventy-sixth YouTube video: “Quick Pick Kroger” went up today. Grocery stocks aren’t very volatile. Normally. So when shares of Kroger, the nation’s free-standing largest grocery chain, went up almost 7.5% on Friday, September 9, it got my attention. A huge increase in sales of store-brand goods, cheaper for the consumer but more profitable for Kroger led to a very strong second quarter. And the sentiment among investors that this was a good stock to own during inflationary times. I’ll be adding it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow, September 16.
September 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-seventy-fifth YouTube video: “The Fed’s Real Inflation Problem” went up today. The CPI numbers came out and they were disappointing with Inflation running at an 8.3% annual rate in August. But the inflation problem is worst than the headline numbers indicate. Shelter, the single biggest component of the CPI inflation rate, was up by the most in August since 1991. And the Federal Reserve has very little ability to lower a runaway inflation rate in rents using its usual methods of raising interest rates and curbing growth in the money supply. That means the process of controlling inflation is going to be slow and difficult.
September 12, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Videos, VZ |
My one-hundred-and-seventy-fourth YouTube video: “Quick Pick Verizon” went up today. Verizon (VZ) is hated by everybody, but if you’re looking for a high-yield stock (safe but without a whole lot of price appreciation in all probability) with consistent dividend increases, Verizon will get the job done for your portfolio. I own it in my Dividend Portfolio and love the yield.
September 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-seventy-third YouTube video: “Trend of the Week Watch for a Global Liquidity Shock” went up today For today’s Trend of the Week, I’m looking at not just whether the market goes up or down, but HOW the market goes up and down. Norway’s Equinor worry last week about a $1.5 trillion liquidity shortage in the trading market for European energy last weekend went so far as to call it a “Lehman Brothers moment.” You remember Lehman Brothers, right? And the global financial crisis? The shock of the statement resonates in Europe and beyond.
September 7, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-seventy-second YouTube video: “Will the Strong Dollar Crash the Global Economy?” went up today. We need to talk about a crisis. During this period of the strong dollar, (in comparison with the rest of the global economy), central banks are in a tough position. It’s a no-win situation and has me worried about the global economy as a whole. Watch the video to see my suggestions going forward.
August 29, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-seventy-first YouTube video: “Trend of the Week The Market is Badly Mispricing” went up today. Market prices say that investors and traders don’t think things are very risky, especially in the long run. Look at the yields on the 10- and 30-year bonds, for example.
August 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-sixty-ninth YouTube video: “China is what a climate emergency looks like” went up today. I’m picking up the theme from last week’s video (It’s All About Water). China is experiencing a major drought, which is having not only the expected effects (no water for crops and for generating power) but also unexpected impacts across manufacturing and meat production. In the era of global climate change, this is an example of how climate issues will continue to pop up, with big effects on the global economy, in unexpected places and times. Smart investors, take notice.
