My one-hundred-and-sixty-fourth YouTube video “Quick Pick Cummins Part 3” went up today. I’m returning to my pick Cummins (CMI) because the company just released strong second-quarter earnings. What caught my eye is that besides not affirming guidance for the rest of 2022, the company reported growth in gross margins and operating margins at a time when many companies are feeling squeezed.
My one-hundred-and-sixty-third YouTube video “Jobs: the Recession Barrier Erodes” went up today. Are we in a recession or not? Many economists argue that because there’s strength in the labor market, we can’t be in a recession. But what we’re starting to see is that many companies, like Walmart (WMT), Tesla (TSLA) Warner Brothers—Discovery (WBD), Peloton (PTON), and Compass (COMP) are cutting jobs. Many of these cuts are so recent that they’re not included in official backward-looking data. The market right now is hoping for a soft landing, but these cuts lead me to think that a soft landing isn’t in the cards.
My one-hundred-and-sixty-second YouTube video “Earnings Not as Bad as They Could Be” went up today. Microsoft (MSFT) serves as my example. We’re seeing some companies that, despite very meager earnings growth, give investors the impression that things “are not as bad as they could be.” These stocks will see bumps after upcoming earnings reports. Is this a long-term trend? Is it enough to keep the Bear Market rally going? Not necessarily. But it supports stocks for now.
My one-hundred-and-sixtieth YouTube video “Investing to beat the coming recession” went up today. I’m back, after a week’s hiatus. This week I’m sharing some thoughts about the market trials and tribulations of Snap (SNAP) and Alphabet (GOOG) on recent earnings, my perspective going forward, and a few words of caution. We might be eager to think that we can find the stocks that will escape the recession. But as Walmart’s drop illustrates, as we get closer and closer to a declared recession, finding those few stocks gets harder and harder. It’s time to try something else, I’d suggest.
My one-hundred-and-fifty-ninth YouTube video “Trend of the Week Hedging with Commodities Lives” went up today. The strong dollar has knocked commodity plays around. But the reasons for buying these hedges still hold. Inflation. Supply shortages (especially in agricultural commodities.) I think there’s still a strong case that commodities are a good way to hedge this market.
I’m firmly in the negative camp on emerging markets. If you want to profit from the downward move in these markets, I see two options: one is investing in a fund that shorts emerging markets, like EUM. Or, two, you can buy put options on a fund like EMXC (which tracks emerging markets minus China). There are benefits and downsides to each approach.
What a great Q&A. You had so many questions; we discussed Fed policy/inflation/recession (of course), but also GME, UUP, PXD…the list goes on. Here’s the full YouTube conversation if you missed it.
My one-hundred-and-fifty-seventh YouTube video “Inflation isn’t about to get better” went up today. Yesterday, we had new CPI inflation numbers, and the bar keeps pushing higher with annual inflation reaching 9.1% in June. I think if you are making investing plans based on an expectation that inflation will be getting better soon, you’re flat out wrong. Here’s why: the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to drive up commodity prices across the board, which will keep having a huge impact on inflation numbers. People are now expecting a 1% increase in interest rates from the Fed at the July meeting. The size of that move is an indication of exactly how difficult the Fed thinks it will be to get inflation under control.
I’ll be answering the questions already submitted by readers of this site as well as taking live questions from readers. Go to my YouTube channel (don’t tell me you don’t subscribe!) at 5 p.m. New York time tomorrow, Wednesday, July 13, to join in the fun and chaos.
My one-hundred-and-fifty-sixth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: India’s at a Danger Point” went up today. This week’s Trend video is a follow-up to my piece on the “Global Debt Bomb” from last week. Maybe default by Sri Lania or Laos isn’t enough to disturb the global financial marketplace, but India? I think the Indian economy is at a danger point, with money flowing out of the country and high inflation. I think this will have a huge negative effect on emerging markets globally.
My one-hundred-and-fifty-fifth YouTube video “Quick Pick UUP Dollar ETF” went up today. In my video yesterday (if you missed it, go watch!) I explained why a strong dollar has hit commodity stocks hard, and why I think the dollar will continue to be strong. One strategy I suggested: Investing in an ETF that tracks the dollar. My recommendation here is Invesco Dollar Index Fund (UUP). I’ll be adding it to my ETF Portfolio on my JubakAM.Com subscription site on July 8.
My one-hundred-and-fifty-fourth YouTube video “Strong Dollar Hits Stocks–3 Things to Do” went up today. The biggest factor driving falling prices in commodities (ahem, oil) is the rising strength of the dollar. Believe it or not, the US economy is faring better than other trading partners. That combined with rising interest rates makes for a stronger dollar. In this video, I provide three picks to address this issue as I continue to expect rate hikes from the Fed.
