Take it with a grain of salt: Today’s rally has all the earmarks of an end of the quarter effort to push stock prices higher. The driver for the upward move on stock prices today seems to be market enthusiasm for the possibility that the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Chinese government will all move to stimulate their respective economies.
With Japanese GDP growth unexpectedly slowing to an annual 1% rate in the fourth quarter and with the Japanese consumer facing an increase in the national sales tax to 8% from 5% in April, Japan’s central bank today extended its unlimited loan program for another year
The Bank of Japan starts a two-day meeting tomorrow with traders betting that more stimulus is on the agenda
I think putting money into Japan on a forecast that the yen will be weaker in six months than it is today is still likely to pay off. But the trade is certainly not as simple as it was earlier in 2013
In the very short term Japan’s disappointing second quarter GDP figures have taken down share prices in Tokyo. In the slightly longer term, the negative news is likely to weaken the yen on speculation that the Bank of Japan will move to speed up policies designed to stimulate Japan’s economy by weakening the yen. And a weaker yen is good for profits at Japanese exporters and for Japanese stock prices in general.
Japan can have it all—a weaker yen, a growing economy, inflation of 2% and a sales tax increase to demonstrate fiscal responsibility. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said so. That’s what the financial markets in Japan wanted to hear. Especially since the Bank of Japan ended a two-day meeting saying that it remained pledged to doubling the country’s monetary base.
The dollar is sinking against the yen and the yen is climbing as the Bank of Japan begins a two-day meeting. Nobody expects Japan’s central bank to do anything. But talk counts and the country’s financial markets seem to be counting on the bank to renew its pledge to double the monetary base
The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.48% overnight in Tokyo on profit taking before Sunday’s election for the upper house of Japan’s parliament. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s coalition is projected to cruise to an easy victory giving the government control of both houses of parliament and a clear path for pushing forward Abe’s economic program.
