Second quarter GDP forecasts start to come back to earth
Not so long ago major economic forecasts such as the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank were calling for second quarter U.S. GDP to grow at an annual rate of better than 4%. That was extraordinarily strong growth and it fit in with forecasts from...Notes You Need for June 29: Inflation, consumer spending, oil prices, tariffs, EuroZone inflation, U.S. deficit, rig count, GM warns on tariff effect on jobs
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don't justify a full post. I've decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I'm calling Notes...
Decent retail sales in April point to likely rebound in consumer spending from first quarter weakness
Not great numbers but strong enough. For April it looks like a strong job market and higher take-home pay more than balanced out higher gasoline prices. Gas prices are now at their highest level since 2014.
U.S. stocks rally on good economic news and end of the quarter window dressing
U.S. stocks are up as of 1:30 p.m. today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is ahead 0.95% and the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is up 1.08%. Two reasons for this, I think, and the second is more important today. First, we had a raft of positive economic news this morning. Second, it’s the end of the first quarter and last chance for window dressing.
So how strong is the economy–really?
The economic data this morning paint contradictory pictures on the strength of the U.S. economy. On the one hand GDP in the third quarter grew at a better than expected 3% annual rate. On the other hand, Â real final sales to domestic purchasers, which strips out the effect of trade and inventories, the two most volatile components of the GDP figures, grew at only a 1.8% rate. That’s the slowest rate since early 2016.
A Fed interest rate increase in June? Consumer spending says, Yes; Inflation slowdown says, Maybe
Consumer spending picked up in April, signaling that growth in the economy as a whole is headed for a rebound after a weak first quarter. Purchases increased by 0.4% in April, matching projections from economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after a 0.3% gain in March. On the other hand, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE, rose just 0.2% in April from March and is now up only 1.7% year over year. That’s below the 2% inflation target set by the U.S. central bank
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
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U.S. GDP growth rate a tepid 0.7% in first quarter
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No sign U.S. economic growth accelerating in today’s income report
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Stocks climb again on “bad news is good news” model
The Standard & Poor’s 500 moved to another record today and closed at 2190.15, up 0.28%, on news that U.S. and Chinese retail sales were weaker than expected and that the Japanese economy went back into the tank after a strong first quarter for growth.
How long will consumers dip into savings to fuel spending (and the economy)?
Consumer purchases rose 0.4% in June, according to a report from the Commerce Department this morning. That was ahead of the 0.3% increase forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. But incomes rose by a lower than expected 0.2% in June. Consumers spent more by putting less into savings. The savings rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.5%
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