A near-term threat to the V-shaped recovery
Stock prices--3068.76 on for the Standard & Poor's 500 as of 1 p.m. New York time today--continue to climb toward the all-time closing record for the S&P 500 at 3386.15 set on February 19. That makes some sense if you believe that the Federal Reserve will...
Trick or Trend: Warning signs for the economy in Friday’s consumer spending report
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. In April...
Good earnings news from JPMorgan Chase and bad holiday retail news balance out today
This morning JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Â reported that fourth quarter earnings jumped 21% with annual earnings for 2019 rising to a record $36.4 billion. Chalk this one up to a rebound in trading revenue, especially fixed income trading where revenue came in $1 billion...
Trick or Trend: Will GDP forecasts from the New York and Atlanta fed be wrong again for the fourth quarter? Investors sure should hope so
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. The New...
On GDP growth there’s good news and bad news and more bad news
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported this morning. The good news: The 1.9% growth in GDP was above the 1.6% rate forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The bad news: That 1.9% growth rate was...
Stocks rally on September jobs report–the “why,” though, is complicated
This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 136,000 jobs in September. And stocks rallied with the Standard & Poor's 500 closing the day up 1.10% to 2942.56 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending up 1.11%. The NASDAQ Composite...
August numbers say U.S. consumer is in decent shape; business investment still lags
Consumer spending on goods and services, which accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product, increased by just 0.1% in August from July, the smallest gain in six months, according to the Commerce Department today. Personal income was up 0.4% in August....
Goldilocks is alive and well, thanks to the U.S. consumer
The U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected that year over year growth in GDP would fall to 1.8%. So today's number...
Why stocks might pause this week
If there was ever a set up for a pause, this week is it. Last week, on June 20, the Standard & Poor's 500 hit an all time high. This week there's a lot of pending news to make investors nervous at this level of price in the market. It's time for caution--and maybe...
More of the same in today’s economic data: low inflation, good growth in consumer spending, but lagging incomes
Put today's numbers on the economy together with those in Friday's first quarter GDP report and the picture that emerges is of a U.S. economy growing at s very solid rate with declining inflation. But where the trends on consumer incomes and spending suggest, maybe,...
Savings rate dips in September; PCE inflation matches Fed target
The savings rate dipped in September, the Commerce Department reported this morning. Americans. Americans saved 6.2% of their disposable income, the lowest level since 2013. Incomes grew by just 0.2%, the weakest in more than a year. That's not good news considering...Download Jim’s eBook for Free
