February 21, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, WMT |
Today, February 21, Walmart (WMT) reported s 76% year-over-year jump in earnings to $1.71 a share. Wall Street analysts had forecast earnings of $1.52 a share for the fourth quarter. Revenue rose 7.3% to $164 billion. Comparable store sales gained 8.3%. All that pushed the company’s shares higher today with the stock up 0.59% at the close. But Walmart’s cautious guidance for the rest of 2023 helped send the general market lower.
January 27, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Consumer spending, the bulwark of the economy and the reason we had the very positive (2.9%) year-over-year GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter that was announced yesterday, fell by 0.2% in December from November, the Commerce Department reported today, Friday, January 27. After adjusting for inflation, consumer spending fell 0.3% in the month. Today’s report also adjusted the November figures to show a small drop in consumer spending for November. The initial report for that month showed a slight increase.
January 18, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S. retail sales fell 1.1% in December from November, the Department of Commerce reported this morning. Commerce also revised November sales figures to show a drop of 1% from October instead of the originally reported 0.6% decline. The figures are seasonally adjusted (which always introduces an element of uncertainty) but they don’t reflect price changes and some of the month-to-month drop could be a result of declining inflation. The decline might be a reflection of a falling inflation rate in November and December. Could be. Or maybe consumers are cutting back on spending as they anticipate a slowing economy or as they read about another big tech industry layoff.
August 23, 2022 | Daily JAM |
It’s not a surprise. But it is a reminder of a continued negative trend for retailers in a slowing economy. Today, August 23, in its second-quarter earnings report Macy’s (M) lowered guidance for the remainder of 2022 on higher inventories of unsold goods and slower sales.
August 3, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Credit card debt rose in the United States from April through June by $46 billion, a 5.5% increase over the first quarter, as Americans borrowed billions of dollars to continue spending, according to a report on Tuesday, August 2, from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The increase of 13% from the second quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022 was the biggest jump in more than 20 years.
June 18, 2022 | Daily JAM |
I’m seeing growing negativity on the U.S. economy and on the timing and depth of a U.S. recession. I think it’s important to note that the stock market and the economy aren’t perfectly correlated. Stocks can go up even as the economy weakens on things like sentiment about the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, for example, or just in reaction to an oversold condition in the financial markets. But an increase in negative sentiment about the economy certainly increases the odds of a downturn in stocks. And makes stocks more risky. And right now I’m seeing the emergence of very negative sentiment on consumer spending on services ranging from restaurants to hotels to travel. I think the summer rally in segments such as airlines that I’ve been looking for is becoming less likely. I’m going to begin trimming the positions I put on for just such a move.
May 12, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos, You Might Have Missed |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-third YouTube video “My fear is a credit crunch” went up today. My fear is a credit crunch. I’m not as concerned with the Fed raising rates, or a recession–those are sort of run of the usual events. But a credit crunch would be a different thing–think Global Financial Crisis. I think signs are pointing to a credit crunch on consumers, which threatens to make any coming recession much worse. In this video, I lay it out. Take a look, and be careful out there.
December 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Lags are one of the toughest things to get right in figuring out how the economy operates and where it’s headed. For the last half of 2021 as the big Pandemic stimulus cash flows first fell and then dried up completely, economists have been looking for signs of a slowdown in consumer spending. But the slowdown has been slow to arrive–thanks mostly to the fact that many consumers saved a large percentage of that stimulus cash. Now, finally, it looks like consumers are drawing down those savings balances and that the savings rate is headed back to something like its historical norm.
October 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Consumers’ holiday spending intentions are a tad lower than in 2020, according to the latest survey from the Conference Board. On average, consumers intend to spend $648 on gifts this holiday season, according to the survey. That’s down from $673 in 2020. But it still leaves gift budgets at historically high levels.
October 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S. retail sales rose by 0.7% in September. That follows an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in August, the Commerce Department reported today. The biggest surprise came in autos. Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales rose 0.5% in September after a 3.3% decline in August. Excluding autos, retail sales advanced 0.8% in September. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a 0.2% decline in overall sales and a 0.5% rise excluding autos.
October 14, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
You can see yesterday’s stock rally and its continuation today as a return of the Goldilocks market. Yesterday, for example, inflation, if you look just at core inflation–that is without food and energy prices–looked strong enough to make the Federal Reserve very cautious about removing monetary stimulus from the economy, but core inflation wasn’t so strong that it sent up warning flares. And today, the drop in initial claims for unemployment to 293,000 (for the week ended October 9) for a new Pandemic low argues that the economy continues to improve but that the economy in general and the job market in particular are neither too hot nor too cold In other words a Goldilocks scenario.
August 28, 2020 | Daily JAM |
Capital One Financial (COF), the third-largest U.S. credit card lender, is cutting borrowing limits on it credit cards. The company has said it's no big deal, telling Bloomberg that “Capital One periodically reviews accounts based on a variety of factors and may make...
