December 18, 2024 | Daily JAM |
In today’s quarterly update to its projections on economic growth, inflation, and interested rates in its Dot Plot survey of sentiment, Fed officials and governors forecast fewer rate cuts for next year than in their September projections, and they saw the fight against inflation making considerably less progress in 2025. According to the median estimate, they now see the benchmark interest rate reaching a range of 3.75% to 4% by the end of 2025. That would mean just two 25 basis-point cuts. The Fed’s projections are considerably more pessimistic than investors or Wall Street economists are. A majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the median estimate would point to three cuts next year.
December 18, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Today, December 18, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time.The Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the action, preferring to hold rates steady.
December 15, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, MCD, Special Reports |
What you need as an investor and what your portfolio needs is a road map to the likely events of the beginning of this new administration. And a take on what those events are likely to mean for the financial markets–and the prices of stocks and bonds. And recommendations on what moves to make to respond to the events of the first 100 days of a Trump Administration. Which is what this Special Report is all about. Here /i’ll give you an investor’s calendar to the first 100 days of Trump; a run-down of the likely effects on the financial markets of the events in the first 100 days; and recommendations for moves that you should make with your portfolio.
December 14, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
When the Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate move and it’s Dot Plot projections on future interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth, it will be the Dot Plot projections that matter to the financial markets.
December 11, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Inflation remains stubborn. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a 2.7% annual rate in November, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. That was hotter than a 2.6% rise in October. But that matched economists forecasts. It was also above September’s 2.4% annual rate. On a monthly basis, inflation increased 0.3% from October to November, the biggest gain since April. Prices for housing, energy, and particularly food all rose.
CPI core inflation, prices excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose another 0.3% for the fourth straight month. The are rate was up 3.3% for the year. For the past six months, core inflation has been stuck at an elevated level above the Fed’s target of 2%.
December 8, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
All eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index inflation report for November due out on the morning of Wednesday, December 11. It’s the last big inflation data dump before the Federal Reserve meets on December 18.
December 6, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday morning, December 6. In addition, revisions added 56,000 jobs to the totals for October and September. Which adds up to a strong recovery from the shocking low 12,000 new jobs initially reported for October. Initial analysis that the almost non-existant growth for October was due to hurricanes and strikes now looks correct. At the same time, the unemployment rate, which is calculated in a survey separate from that which produces the jobs total, ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The jobs total and the unemployment rate were broadly expected by economists. The complete picture is of an economy showing a continued modest expansion. In my opinion, that’s enough to lead to a 25 basis point cut at its December 18 meeting in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate from the current range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The CME FedWatch took today put the odds od a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting at 85.1%. That’s up from 66% odds a week ago
December 1, 2024 | Daily JAM |
I the Big Event to be Friday morning’s report of the November jobs numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 2% last week. The Nasdaq Composite and the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose more than 1%. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones ended November at all-time highs. A ”good” jobs report, which is likely, will keep the records coming for at least another week–until the usual Fed meeting jitters set in on the run up to the central bank’s meeting on December 18.
November 29, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
At 8:30 a.m. on Friday, December 6, investors will see the U.S. jobs report for November. Economists expect that the economy added 200,000 jobs in the month and that for the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.2%.
November 28, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Yesterday, Wednesday, November 27, the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, had continued the stall that began in May.
November 21, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Three days after the U.S. election, Redfin, the technology-driven real estate brokerage that does business in 100 markets, raised its projection for the average mortgage rate in 2025 to 6.8%. That’s roughly where the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands now. Other real estate analysts, including Moody Analytics and Capital Economics, expect rates near 7% next year. This is bad news for two reasons.
November 19, 2024 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, GLD, GOLD, Mid Term, NEM, Special Reports, VZ |
If you’re an investor looking for income, you’re facing what I’d call a Yield Drought. And this is no temporary dry spell. Things on the income investing front look they’ll get worse before they get better. Unless a financial crisis intervenes in 2025 to make everything else much worse and the yield story much better. Because, you see, there are two parts to the current Yield Drought.
