December 8, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 199,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported today, Friday, November 8. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9% in October That surprised economists who had expected the unemployment rate to hold steady. The bond market reacted in the morning hours after the report was released at 8:30 a.m. New York time by selling Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year Treasury gained 8 basis points to 4.233% as of 10 a.m. in New York as bond prices fell. The yield on the two-year Treasury jumped 78 basis points to 4.669%.
December 7, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
It’s probably not enough to push the Federal Reserve to cut rates on the schedule that Wall Street is hoping for –with the first cut in March 2024–but it does make a “no increase in interest rates” result from the December 13 Fed meeting even more likely.
December 6, 2023 | ALB, Daily JAM, GOLD, Jubak Picks, MSFT, NVDA, Special Reports, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
Here are the first 8 picks for my GREATER Growth Stocks Special Report. More on the way.
December 5, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
In October job openings in the U.S. economy fell to the lowest level since early 2021. I’m sure that make the Federal Reserve happy ahead of its December 13 meeting on interest rates. The Fed has been looking for sign that the labor market is cooling off. And it’s getting plenty of them recently. (And will probably get more on Thursday and Friday when the government reports new claims for unemployment and the jobs situation for November.) The question, for those few of us who still see a recession in 2024 as a danger, is When is slower too slow? A slowing labor market means fewer gains to average weekly earnings. Which translates into either less consumer spending, or consumer spending fueled by more debt.
December 4, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
I’m hearing some chatter that says bond traders and analysts are stepping aside from the bond rally. Or are planning to do so. Their argument is that the move has been too far, too fast. Specifically, I’ve heard talk of selling if the yield on the 10-year Treasury hits 4.00%. On Friday, the yield was 4.20%. So I’d be watching to see if anything like a bond rally pause or reversal materializes during the days ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on December 13
December 1, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
It wasn’t the most forceful pushback it’s true, but the financial markets paid attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s attempt to say interest rate cuts aren’t just around the corner for about two minutes. And then the rally based on a belief in 4 or 5 cuts in 2024, and as early as March (and certainly by May), was off and running again.
November 28, 2023 | Daily JAM |
The pace of improvement in the U.S. inflation rate is set to slow in the coming year. According to the economists surveyed by Bloomberg in its latest monthly outing, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index-—-the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation–will still be running at a 2.5% pace at the end of 2024. That’s up slightly from the 2.4% prediction in last month’s Bloomberg poll. Importantly it’s still significantly higher than the Fed’s 2% target inflation rate.
November 26, 2023 | Daily JAM |
I expect a week heavy with Fed-speak with the Federal Reserve’s pre-meeting quiet period due to start on Saturday, December 2, this week is the central bank’s last chance to shape market sentiment before the December 13 meeting of the Open Market Committee. That’s the Fed body that sets interest rates, just in case you’ve forgotten. The December 13 meeting date also includes the release of the quarterly update of the Fed’s Dot Plot projections on interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment for 2024.
November 24, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment fell by 24,000 to 209,000 in the week ending November 18, the Labor Department said n Wednesday. That was the biggest drop since June. Continuing claims, the number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits, slipped to 1.84 million in the week ended Nov. 11. That was the first drop in two months.
November 17, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Until this week, the consensus was that the Federal Reserve would begin to cut interest rates in July (or maybe June.) As of Friday, November 17, however, the CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the odds of a Fed move from prices in the FedFunds Futures market, put chances of a interest rate cut at the central bank’s May 1 meeting at better than 50%.
November 16, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
More news this morning pointing to a slowing economy. Initial claims for unemployment for the past week rose 13,000 to 231,000, the Labor Department Reported this morning. That’s the highest weekly figure in three months. And is yet another sign that the economy is cooling. Which would encourage the Federal Reserve to call an end to it interest rate increases and, maybe even, start to cut rates relatively soon. At least that’s how the bond market read the numbers.
November 15, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Today stocks and bonds both paused to think about yesterday’s huge rally.
