It’s getting to look a lot like end of the year volatility
Remember how back in September a spike in very short term overnight rates in the repo market kicked off volatility across the financial markets until the Federal reserve flooded that market with liquidity? Well, signs are that we could see the kind of spike in...
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
... a quiet, holiday shortened week on U.S. markets--with the possible exception of China news. The Thanksgiving calendar, which puts the start of the Federal Reserve's quiet season ahead of the December 11 meeting of the bank's Open Market Committee on Saturday...Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about...
Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020
Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning's testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee.  “We see the current stance of...
Treasury yields climb again–how far will they go?
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed another 10 basis points today to 1.85%. The yield is now up 32 basis points in the last month, although it is still down 135 basis points in a year. That leaves the yield on the 10-year Treasury 40 basis points above its...
The Fed interest rate pause that …
Distresses? Refreshes? Isn't important? Today, as expected the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate for the third time this year. The Fed lowers its benchmark rate 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. At the same time the Fed signaled that it would...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
... that news on a U.S.-China trade agreement will still be a big mover from stocks, but it will have to share top-of-mind space this week with the Wednesday, October 30, meeting of the Federal Reserve's interest rate setting body, the Open Market Committee. As far as...
Fed minutes from September show debate on how low interest rates should go
Here's the most important point, to me, from the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting released today. At the meeting the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in 2019. “Several participants suggested that the committee’s...
The Powell Put underneath the financial markets and the U.S. economy just got stronger
It quacks like quantitative easing. It walks like quantitative easing. But it's not quantitative easing. According to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell anyway. In a speech today, October 8, to the National Association for Business Economics, Powell said the Fed will...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the 3 weeks ahead expect….
... busy, busy, busy. Here's what we know to be on tap for the rest of October as of today October 5. U.S.-China trade talks are set to resume on Thursday, October 10. That means a switch from a period when both nations were issuing statements and policy steps...
Today’s stock gains look like a traders’ bounce rather than a shift in sentiment
Yes, U.S. stocks were up today with the S&P 500 closing higher by 1.10% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 1.11%. But that still left the stock market down for the week. And looking at the performance today of risk havens, today's move looks to be a bounce...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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