October 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Last Monday, with the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party moving toward approving a new 5-year term for current President Xi Jinping, the National Bureau of Statistics delayed the release of key economic data.
Today, with the National Congress over and President Xi reinstalled at the top of the Party, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released the data.
And as every economist outside China expected, the data showed disappointing weakness in China’s economy.
April 19, 2022 | Daily JAM |
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth in today’s regular update of its World Economic Outlook. The IMF is now projecting global economic growth of 3.6% in 2022. That’s down from a forecast of 4.4% growth in January before Russia invaded Ukraine. And the forecast is well below actual growth of 6.1% in 2021. The IMF also lowered its forecast to 2023 to 3.6% from the prior 3.8% growth.
April 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
I’m looking for more downgrades on projections for global economic growth as war in Ukraine gets hotter again with shift in fighting to eastern Ukraine. There’s certainly no indication that the war is about to wind down. We’ve already seen a set of lower forecasts for global economic growth. And we are likely to see another round of lower projections in the coming week or two.
October 1, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
All the major U.S. stock indexes fell today as the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing disappointed by sinking further into contraction territory. At 47.8 for September, the index hit a 10-year low. Economists surveyed by...
September 18, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Today the Federal Reserve lowered its main interest rate another 25 basis points to a range of 1.75% to 2%. To say that the Fed's Open Market Committee was divided on the decision would be an extreme understatement: Five officials wanted to keep rates unchanged, while...
September 1, 2019 | Daily JAM |
... some things in the financial markets will be so similar to what they were before the Labor Day holiday that you might think you were never away at all. Not everything, though. Yes, the U.S.-China trade war will still be hanging fire. And the tariffs on $112...
August 26, 2019 | Daily JAM |
The U.S.-China trade war continues to erode business confidence in Germany. Business confidence in the country, home to Europe's largest economy, fell to its weakest level in almost seven years as a deepening manufacturing slump put the German economy on the  verge of...
August 25, 2019 | Daily JAM |
... financial markets to ignore very clear warnings from global central banks at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference this weekend. Central bankers, including the Fed's Jerome Powell, were very clear in warning that central bank monetary policy tools were not...
August 23, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Good news and bad news for investors betting on a signal of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve in Jerome Powell's speech at today's Jackson Hole central bank festival Financial markets were hoping that Powell would indicate that the Fed is thinking about a...
August 14, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
As of noon today New York time, the Standard & Poor's 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are both down 2.42%. The NASDAQ Composite is lower by 2.78%. The Russell 2000 small cap index has tumbled 2.66%. And the iShare MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has...
August 13, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Just in case you were wondering: Nothing matters to the stock market except tariffs. I think today's trading proves that. This morning the Trump administration announced that it would delay new 10% tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods set to go into effect on...
June 20, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
I wonder if the Trump White House ever feels like it's playing Whac-A-Mole. Certainly as soon as the administration talks one tariff crisis back from the edge, another seems to pop up somewhere else in the globe. Now it's India. India has announced retaliatory tariffs...
