Oil climbed to a two-and-a-half year high this morning. Judging from the general “there’s no news today so follow the trend” nature of trading this morning, the bump in oil prices is likely to be a reflection of a continued belief in solid global growth for the year ahead and a bet on the continued downward trend in the U.S. dollar.
I’m not sure I can put together the disparate action of gold, financials, and bonds today. The combination of directions certainly isn’t the conventional one.
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. Posts include items like this one from today: “11:40 a.m.: Just a reminder in the midst of all the chaos over the tax bill: The deal to continue funding the federal government expires on December 8. Without a new deal (most probably another temporary extension of funding authority) the government will have to close down after that date. (The deal to suspend the debt ceiling expires on that same date but Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says “extraordinary measures” will enable the Treasury to keep paying the government’s bills through the end of January.)”
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. Items in this mini-blog include mentions like this one: “10:20 a.m.: Japan’s stock market was closed today but the Nikkei 225 index gained 2.4% for the week continuing its post-election run higher.”
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. This mini-blog includes items like this from today: “11:40 a.m.: The PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation rise by 0.4% in September and is now up 1.6% year over year. In August the index was ahead 1.4% year over year. The core index, which excludes food and energy, was uo 1.3% year over year. Nothing here to change the odds on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates at its December 13 meeting.”
For my third pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF Active Passive Portfolio I looked to fill the Commodities slot in the portfolio with an ETF that would provide a hedge for the portfolio if the market tumbled but that would also produce a positive return if the market didn’t fall but other recent trends continued. The pick that achieves those two goals is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)
The odds of a December 13 interest rate increase, according to prices in the Fed Funds Futures market, have climbed to 81.4% today, September 27. That’s up from 72.5% odds on September 25 and from 37.8% odds back on August 25.
It’s not surprising that the major U.S. stock indexes are down. So far today the North Korean foreign minister has said that President Donald Trump’s threats against his country amount to a declaration of war, and that North Korea has the right to shoot down U.S. warplanes even if they aren’t actually flying in North Korean airspace. Amazing that the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was off only 0.38% as of 3 p.m. New York time.
Even after the Federal Reserve said it aimed to raise interest rates once more in 2017 and then three times in 2018–and scheduled the drawn down of its balance sheet for an October start, the U.S. dollar has been unable to stage a convincing rally.Â
A very subdued market so far (at 2 p.m. New York time) today. Maybe it’s the solar eclipse. After all who wants to put on a long position when the sun is about to be eaten by dragons? As of 2 p.m. the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up just 0.06%. But under the placid surface the trends that have characterized the market recently continue to work.
Not surprisingly haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen are up today. So are volatility measures such as the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX.) Surprisingly, the rush to safety hasn’t been as strong as you might expect after a day when U.S.President Donald Trump threatened North Korea with fire and fury and that country responded by threatening to nuke Guam.
