This morning it looks like the combination of turmoil in Washington and some weak economic data have led traders and investors to take money out of risk assets and put money into safe havens. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was off 1.11% and the NASDAQ Composite, which has led this market higher, was down 1.6%. The German DAX Index was off 1.3% and the French CAC 40 Index fell 1.69%.
Last night President Donald Trump backed off his demand that any deal to fund the federal government include money to start construction on The Wall. At an event with conservative journalists, Trump said he’s okay waiting until September to have this fight. Which would seem to indicate that the President would sign a funding bill that doesn’t include money for The Wall.
U.S. financial markets are closed today for Good Friday so we don’t have any market reaction to this morning’s surprising inflation data. My best estimate, though, is that on Monday markets will assume that the data argues for a slower than expected schedule for higher interest rtes.
It’s a classic risk off market today as of 4 p.m. New York time. All the safe havens are up. The yen is ahead 1.2% to 109.65 to the dollar, breaching the 110 level for the first time since November. Gold is 1.73% higher to $1275.60 an ounce. The 10-year U.S. Treasury is up and the yield is down to 2.30%. And riskier asset classes are down. Modestly.
After last week’s defeat of the American Health Care Act, the looming battle over funding the U.S. government past the April 28 deadline is critical. If the package that finally passes doesn’t include anything from the Trump administration’s wish list, then I think a financial market that has climbed on a belief in a big corporate tax cut and some kind of infrastructure plan, will start to lose some of the “animal spirits” that have driven U.S. stocks higher.
It’s not like anything momentous happened over the weekend. It didn’t. But if you’re inclined to read tealeaves, the implications of this weekend are unsettling. Which seems to have affected the financial markets today.
