March 8, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Private payrolls increased by 242,000 in February, according to the ADP National Employment Report. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had been looking for the economy to add 205,000 jobs in the month. The February increase was well above the revised January total of 119,000 new jobs. While the jobs report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t always track closely to the ADP report, the stronger-than-expected new job total in today’s data certainly suggests that Friday’s official government report could also come in hotter than expected. Right now economists are looking for the economy to add 225,00 jobs in February according to the official data.
March 7, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
As the day wore on, the stock market decided that it liked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Senate testimony less and less. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was down just 0.72% at 11 a.m. New York time. The index closed down 1.53% for the day.
March 2, 2023 | Daily JAM |
In the four weeks through February 26, the median price for a typical home was $350,246, down 0.6% from the same period a year earlier, according to Redfin. That’s the first year-over-year drop since 2012.
March 1, 2023 | Daily JAM |
It’s not like we don’t know that these two Federal Reserve presidents favor higher interest rates for longer. But still hearing them say it did put a crinkle in stock prices today.
February 24, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose in January at its fastest pace since June. Consumer prices rose 0.6% from December to January, up sharply from a 0.2% increase from November to December, the Commerce Department reported on Friday, February 24. Year-over-year prices rose at a 5.4% rate, up from a 5.3% annual race in December. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.6% from December, up from a 0.4% rise in December from Movember. Year-over-year core inflation was up 4.7% in January, versus a 4.6% year-over-year rate in December.
February 22, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s February 1 meeting show a central bank anticipating Federal Reserve further increases in interest rates in order to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “Participants observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2%, which was likely to take some time,” according to the minutes of the February 1 meeting released today February 22.
February 21, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Today, February 21, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose 14 basis points to 3.95%. Other Treasuries dropped in price and showed higher yields as well.
February 20, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The big event of the week will be Friday’s report on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index. This, rather than the CPI, is the inflation measure that the Federal Reserve watches.
February 18, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Remember the good ol’ days when Treasuries paid 0% or so and you had to give a bank your toaster to open an account, paying 0.01%? Right now you can find a CD paying 5%–and it doesn’t require locking up your money until the sun goes super-nova either.
Today, the 12-month Treasury closed with a yield of 4.99%. And the 6-month bill paid an even higher 5.02? You can find a bond ETF with an SEC yield of 4.63%. And even a money market fund paying 4.45%. What’s the case for stashing some of your cash in something “safe” as the stock market looks like it’s about to go into one of its periods of volatility? And what’s the best choice when you’ve suddenly got so many vehicles offering to pay you 5% or so? In today’s post, I’ll sketch out the pluses and minuses of these alternatives.
February 17, 2023 | Daily JAM |
The comments come from two of the Federal Reserve’s most hawkish members on the need for higher interest rates to combat inflation, so the remarks aren’t exactly a surprise. Nonetheless, the language does push the envelope on thinking about where the Fed’s interest rate peak for this cycle of interest rate increases might be.
February 17, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Economists at Bank of America and Goldman Sachs now see the Federal Reserve extending its interest-rate increases through the June Fed meeting.
February 15, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S. retail sales in January jumped by 3% in January from December, the Commerce Department reported today, February 15. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 2% increase. Retail sales had dropped in December and November. Together with the strong job gains in January, this data point reduces the likelihood of a recession in 2023 and increases the odds that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates after its May 2 meeting.
