Put the numbers all together and the economy is just booming along but there’s not the kind of wage inflation that would push the Fed to raise interest rates quickly. Welcome back Goldilocks, where the market is neither too cold nor too hot, but just right.
Good enough for government work. The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department announced today. That was up from a revised net add of 142,000 jobs in October but below the 180,000 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Official unemployment fell to 4.6%, an eight-year low
The U.S. economy added 161,000 jobs in October and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the September job total upwards to 191,000. The original September report put the month’s job gains at 156,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting the economy to add 173,000 jobs in October.
Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump isn’t as secure as it was just 10 days ago. Facebook (FB) busted above expectations for earnings but still fell big on cautious guidance. This week’s initial claims for unemployment came in at 265,000 instead of the 258,000 economists expected. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is marginally lower going into the close–which would make an eighth straight daily decline. Oil continued to sell off as crude unwinds all the gains after OPEC’s promise of production cuts
The U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in September after an upwardly revised August report of 167,000 new jobs. The September number was less than the 172,000 jobs forecast by economists. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 5% in the month from 4.9% in August. But there’s nothing here to suggest that the Federal Reserve will put a December rate increase on hold. On the plus side, the labor participation rate moved up to a six-month high
A big drop in initial claims for unemployment reported this morning sets the stage for tomorrow’s report on jobs in September. A strong showing tomorrow would add to conviction in the financial markets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December 14 meeting. According to the CME’s FedWatch, the Fed Funds Futures market is now pricing in a 63.9% chance of a December increase
Take a Federal Reserve interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 21 meeting off the books. Today, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added only 151,000 net new jobs in August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast the addition of 180,000 jobs.
Manufacturing activity in the United States contracted, unexpectedly, in August, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index released today. The index fell to 49.4 in August from 52.6 in July. That was the biggest drop in the index since January 2014 and was enough to push the index below the 50 level that separates contraction from expansion. The median forecast among economists was for reading of 52.
Today oil prices are down further on the EIA’s oil inventory report: Crude inventories climbed by 2.28 million barrels to 525.9 million barrels for the week that ended on August 26. That’s the highest seasonal level for crude stockpiles in more than two decades. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the release of the report were looking for an increase in inventories of 1.3 million barrels
The U.S. economy added 255,000 net new jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. The government revised June’s jobs total upwards to 292,000. The headline unemployment rate remained at 4.9% as workers on the sidelines re-entered the labor market. The full unemployment rate, which counts discouraged workers no longer looking for a job and part-time workers who would prefer a full-time job ticked upwards to a seasonally adjusted 9.7%
At the same time as government statisticians announced the creation of 287,000 jobs in June, they also revised May’s already shockingly weak 38,000 job figure down to just 11,000. That leaves us looking at a swing from 11,000 to 287,000– or 276,000 jobs in a month. An $18 trillion economy just doesn’t move that fast. So somewhere in the month to month data there’s likely to be a statistical glitch.
