December 11, 2019 | Daily JAM |
Measures of volatility such as the VIX "fear index," the ratio of the implied volatility of S&P 500 put and call options, and the demand in the options market for protection against low-probability events, all say that investors and traders believe this is a...
December 10, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Washington, D.C. is the home of the surreal these days but the timing of the announcement by Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi still raised eyebrows. Just minutes after the House committees investigating President Donald Trump voted two articles of impeachment,...
December 8, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
China's total exports dropped 1.1% year over year in November, the country's customs administration said on Sunday. Total exports to the United States fell 23% year over year. That was the worst result for exports to the United States since February and a 12th...
December 5, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
With 15 defaults in November, total onshore bond defaults have hit $120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion)in 2019, according to Bloomberg. That's close to the 121.9 billion yuan record set in 2018. While the $17.1 billion in onshore defaults seems insignificant compared...
December 4, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
A day after "news" on the lack of progress of U.S.-China trade talks led to a decline in stocks, "news" of progress in the talks has led to a modest rally. The Standard & Poor's 500 closed up 0.63% today and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 0.53%. The...
December 3, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
“I don’t have a deadline,” Trump told reporters today in London. “I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now and we’ll see whether not the deal is going to be right.” And with that financial markets that...
December 2, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
According to the Purchasing Managers Index from the Institute for Supply Management the U.S.manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction in November with the index dropping to 48.1 in November from 48.3 in October. That was a fourth-straight monthly...
December 2, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
President Donald Trump has reinstated tariffs on steel and aluminum exports from Argentina and Brazil, leaving global financial markets wondering what that means. At best, the move is based on mis-understanding by the White House of how exchange rates work. The...
November 25, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite Index hit all time highs. As of 3:40 p.m. New York time on Monday, November 25, the S&P 500 was up 0.67% and the NASDAQn Composite had gained 1.26%. There are two main drivers for the market...
November 22, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
In spite of all the delays and all the contradictory claims I remain convinced that a Part 1 trade agreement between the U.S. and China will get signed. Maybe not in the remainder of 2019 but certainly within the early part of 2020. A wider agreement to settle issues...
November 21, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about...
November 20, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
As you might imagine, this complicates things. Just as U.S. and Chinese negotiators struggle to put together a Part 1 deal to de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war, the two houses of the U.S. Congress are moving to pass legislation that would support pro-democracy...
