September 20, 2021 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility |
Huge surge in volatility this morning. It’s as if everybody woke up and said, “Hey, you know there are risky trends in the world.” As of 12:30 p.m. New York time today, Monday, September 20, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index is up 29.51% to $26.08. I think there’s more volatility ahead so today I’m going to sell the VIX November 17 Call Options with a strike price of 18 in my Volatility Portfolio and buy some more time with a purchase of the VIX December 22 Call Options with a strike price of 19.
September 17, 2021 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 20.69 today, up another 10.7%. That took the “fear index” above the 200-day moving average at 19.98. The VIX had previously moved above the 50-day moving average at 17.86. I’d be surprised if we don’t see more market nerves driving more buying of S&P hedges to send the VIX higher next week.
August 20, 2021 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
A day after shares of Microsoft (MSFT) hit another all time high (see my post from yesterday August 19 on why) the shares have tacked on another 2.63% (as of 3:10 p.m. New York time) today to trade at $304.58. That has pushed the price of the September 17 Call Options with a strike price of $285 in my Volatility Portfolio up another 42.04%.
August 19, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
Today Microsoft (MSFT) closed up 2.08%. The NASDAQ 100 was ahead just 0.51% and the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained only 0.13%. The gains took Microsoft shares to a record intraday high of $297.35. Why the extra pop in Microsoft shares? Because today Microsoft raised the price of its Microsoft 365 productivity suite (Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Teams, Outlook and Enterprise Mobility) by as much s 20%, effective March 1. The price increase is the first since the launch of Office 365 ten years ago.
August 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend |
On Friday, August 6, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) retreated another 6.54% to 16.15. That puts the “fear index” back in the “complacency zone” where I’ve been looking to buy Call Options on the VIX in anticipation of a bounce back to the top of the current zone at 20 on the next “bad news” day. (Whatever the bad news might be.) This trade, which is not dependent on any call about a bear market or even a market correction but rather on the simple bounce from levels of extreme compliance, recommends buy the Call Option on the VIX when it breaks below !6 and then selling the Call Option when it breaks above 20.
August 3, 2021 | Daily JAM |
Last Wednesday, July 28, Chinese financial regulators told big investors–banks and investment groups heavily exposed to China’s stock market–not to worry. China’s financial markets were sound and despite the fears engendered by the government’s crackdown on the country’s private, for-profit, education companies, the government was not looking to reverse decades of growth by companies in China’s private sector. The meeting worked. Stocks of companies like Meituan (MPNGF), China’s dominant food delivery company (with ambitions to become a full-range e-shopping competitor) rose to $30.07 on the day from $26.00 the day before. But the reassurance worked for only a few days. Today, August 3, for example, Meituan was back in the red, falling 4.48% to $26.95 to erase almost all of its “re-assurance” bounce. Today, I’m selling Meitun and Naspers (NPSNY), a South African company with a huge position in China’s Tencent Holding (TCEHY) out of my Volatility and Jubak Picks Portfolios, respectively.
July 28, 2021 | BABA, Daily JAM, MPNGF, TCEHY, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My thirty-sixth YouTube video “Is China un-investable?”-went up today.
July 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, MSFT, Short Term, Volatility |
With everything tech (just about) selling off today (along with the rest of the market) and with the shares of the tech companies due to report today dropping as well, I think the odds have improved for a bounce in those reporting companies on earnings surprises. Microsoft (MSFT) is due to report today after the close and I think there’s a good likelihood that the company will post even better than expected numbers from its Azure Cloud business.
July 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
With the major indexes all down ahead of tech earnings–and fear up–I’m pulling out my VIX options trade again. The rule here, until modified by reality (pesky little thing) is to buy when complacency drives the “fear index” to 16 or below, and to sell when fear rises and pushed the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) to 20 or so. This morning selling in the market sent the VIX up to 19.85, close enough for me to 20, and I’m selling the October 20, 2021 Call Options
July 19, 2021 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility |
As of 2:40 New York time the September 15, 2021 VIX Call Options with a strike at 20 (VIX210915C00020000) were trading at $5.90 a share, up 40.48% on the day on a move higher in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) of 30.35% to 24.05. I’m selling this volatility hedge out of my Volatility Portfolio with a profit of 17.5% since I added it to this portfolio on June 1.
July 18, 2021 | AMD, Daily JAM, IFNNY, Jubak Picks, NVDA, NXPI, Top 50 Stocks, TSM, Volatility |
On Thursday, July 15, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world’s leading chip foundry, reported earnings of 93 cents a share for the second quarter, up 18% year over year. That was inline with analyst estimates. Sales rose 28%. The company raised its revenue guidance for the third quarter to a range of $14.6 billion to $14.9 billion. The midpoint of that range, $14.75 billion, was above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $14.57 billion. Sales in the third quarter of 2020 are $12.4 billion.Taiwan Semiconductor said that it now expects sales to grow more than 20% this year, an increase from the 20% target announced earlier in the year. For 2020-2025, the company raised its revenue forecast to a compound annual growth rate of 15% from a previous target of 10% to 15%. But the stock dropped 5.5% on July 15 and fell another 1.52% on Friday, July 16. Why?
July 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, EVGO, Millennial, Volatility |
On July 15, General Motors announced that Brightdrop, its new unit for recharging electric vehicles, would expand to the recharging of commercial fleet vehicles (such as FedEx.) GM named EVgo (EVgo), already partnering with GM to expand its network of fast charging stations, as a preferred partner in the fleet effort. Yesterday shares of EVgo jumped 14.18% on the news. Today, Friday, July 16, the stock gave back 2.57%. EVgo is already a member of my Volatility Portfolio where it is up 4.81% since I added it on May 19, 2021 through a purchase of shares in the the SPAC that would take the company public via a reverse merger. I’ll be adding EVgo shares to my “Millennial Portfolio (for investors with more time than money)” on Monday
