Trick or trend: Safe haven, safe haven. Who’s got the safe haven
The unexpected weakness in the normally safe-haven Swiss franc indicates just how uncertain long-term market “truths” have become. What is a safe haven now?
Notes You Need for August 14: Japan economy surprise, China Daily criticism, China cuts North Korea imports, dollar firms, yen falls
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Haven assets in demand after day of heated rhetoric on North Korea and nukes
Not surprisingly haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen are up today. So are volatility measures such as the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX.) Surprisingly, the rush to safety hasn’t been as strong as you might expect after a day when U.S.President Donald Trump threatened North Korea with fire and fury and that country responded by threatening to nuke Guam.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
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Saturday Night Quarterback (on Sunday) says, For the weeks ahead expect…
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The dollar index gives up all its post-election gains–and then some
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Growth picks up in EuroZone and Japan–does this change market assumptions on the U.S. dollar?
Data released yesterday on growth in the EuroZone and Japan–coming after disappointing U.S. growth reported last week–certainly raise the question of whether the United States is quite as far ahead of the rest of the world’s developed economies as current market thinking believes
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...Trump talks down the dollar–and U.S. stocks
The U.S. dollar fell today after President-elect Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. currency was too high–in part because China holds down the price of the yuan. On the comments the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 1.1% as of noon New York time.
Trick or Trend: Pound drops and markets bet on bigger fall ahead of Prime Minister’s speech
In overnight trading in Asia the pound fell against the dollar, dropping below $1.20 for the first time since October’s flash crash. The immediate cause was a report in the Sunday Times that in a speech scheduled for Tuesday U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will say that the United Kingdom is prepared to headed for a Hard Brexit
Pre-holiday move to safety starts a little early
With trading volumes already starting to slip–trading in Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks was running about 25% below its average for this time of day at noon today–traders and investors are locking in some gains and seeking safety for the week before Christmas. As of 1 p.m. New York time gold was up for the day and the dollar was down.
Currency traders long U.S. dollars figure there’s another 2% to 3% free money in this trade before the end of the year
Yesterday the dollar rose another 1.2% against the euro to $1.0415, the highest since January 2003. And the US. currency climbed by another 1.4% against the yen. The Dollar Index added to its gain to hit a 15-year high.
Today the dollar has backed off a bit. Not surprising after the huge two-day run after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. But this does all raise the question of how much more there is left in the run.
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