February 28, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility |
Overnight numbers showed that China’s purchasing managers index for manufacturing fell to 50.3 in February. That was down from 51.3 in January. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a reading of 51.1 in the index. The services PMI declined to 54.4 for the month from 55.3 in January. Easy to understand why these index figures would make markets nervous. 50.3 is way too close to the level that signals contraction in this index
February 28, 2018 | Daily JAM |
Share buybacks surged to hit record levels in the fourth quarter of 2017. U.S. companies announced $178 billion in buybacks in the quarter. That’s the largest total announcement of share buybacks in a single quarter on record, according to Birinyi Associations. Wall Street analysts are projecting that 2018 as a whole will set a record for buybacks in a year.
February 27, 2018 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
In the short-term, if bond traders and investors flee the euro and European bonds and pile into U.S. Treasuries, Treasury prices will up and yields go down despite any pick up in U.S. inflation. That would confound bond bears betting on falling prices and rising yields. So what are the odds of such a flight to the safety of U.S. Treasuries?
February 27, 2018 | Daily JAM |
The International Energy Agency today said that “explosive growth” in U.S. oil production from wells in shale geologies is likely to extend beyond 2018. As you might just imagine, an oil market that is struggling to believe that current levels of production cuts from OPEC are enough to balance supply and demand didn’t react well to the “explosive growth” characterization. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 1.58% today
February 27, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
This morning–before the actual testimony by Fed chair Jerome Powell had ended but after Wall Street had read his prepared remarks–stocks moved ahead on Wall Street’s favorite story, Goldilocks. Powell seemed to be saying that economic growth was getting stronger, but that it wasn’t so strong that it would force the Fed to act more quickly. But then as the market actually heard Powell speak, it began to reassess how this story comes out.
February 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Notes You Need |
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. The typical item resembles this from today: “11: 40: Bloomberg is reporting that Apple (AAPL) is planning to release three new smartphones this year as it tries to rebound from disappointing sales of the iPhone X. The new models, tentatively set for a fall introduction, include the largest iPhone even (as Apple tries to grow in the phablet market), an ungraded handset the same size as the current iPhone X, and a less expensive model with some of the key features of the iPhone X.”
February 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts |
I'm adding call options in a Permian Basin oil shale producer, Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). I think the oil market is a good candidate for disruption in 2018 either from OPEC's efforts to drive the price of oil above $70 or from an outbreak of conflict in the...
February 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts |
Shares of MGM Resorts International (MGM) rose 2.52% on Friday, February 23, to close at $35.38. I'm going to use that move to the upside to sell my March 16, 2018 MGM calls (MGM180316C00033000) out of my Volatility Portfolio. I bought these options back on September...
February 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
On Thursday February 22, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients that the economic macro data as likely to be “as good as it gets.” This isn’t, in my opinion, a call for an immediate plunge in the markets. But with U.S. stocks trading near all time highs, I think the Goldman note is something all investors need to take seriously. Or at least the question it raises needs to be taken seriously. Here’s the question: If stocks are at all time highs and the economic data on economic growth, inflation, interest rates, etc. are as good as they’re going to get for this cycle, why should stocks move higher?
February 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts |
When I started my rebalancing of my Volatility Portfolio on February 20, I thought I would add the slightly in the money Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) calls at $80 with an expiration of August 17, 2018 at a closing price of $18.50. But the underlying stock has moved up...
February 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts |
I'm not complaining, mind you. As of Friday February 23, the Nektar Therapeutics May 18, 2018 call options with a strike of $26 (NKTR180518C00026000) in my Volatility Portfolio were up 2546% from my November 1, 2017 buy at $2.40 to $63.50. But I don't want to have...
February 26, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Ahead of congressional testimony tomorrow by new Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Wall Street is buzzing with speculation that the Powell Fed will be willing let inflation run higher than its current target of 2%. Maybe as high as 2.5%.
