Jubak Picks

Getting the the timing right on oil prices (and oil stocks) is very tricky–so I’m making just a limited move tomorrow, Monday, February 28

Getting the the timing right on oil prices (and oil stocks) is very tricky–so I’m making just a limited move tomorrow, Monday, February 28

On Saturday the European Union nations that control SWIFT, the dominant global network connecting banks, announced that they would expel some specific Russian banks from the network. The U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom agreed with the move. The U.S. and its European allies left open the question of sanctions directly on Russia’s central bank.

The move to deny access to SWIFT means that the named Russian banks, and I’m not naming them because I haven’t been able to find a list, won’t be able to pay other banks or receive funds from other banks. They will not be able to transact business with international banks over the SWIFT network for their client businesses. I’d expect that out of an abundance of understandable caution, many Western banks will refuse to do business with Russian banks at all.

We’re about to find out how vulnerable U.S. infrastructure is to Russian cyber attacks

We’re about to find out how vulnerable U.S. infrastructure is to Russian cyber attacks

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine about to trigger another package of tougher U.S. and European sanctions, I think we can expect Russia to delver on Vladimir Putin’s promise of retaliation. The most obvious form of that will be cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure, like the Colonial Pipeline attack, on U.S. financial systems through hacking to steal customer information and denial of service attacks, and on attacks to break into U.S. corporate networks to either paralyze those networks or to effectively put them off line. I wouldn’t rule out attacks on government infrastructure either at local, state, and national levels.

Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Alcoa

Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Alcoa

I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and third YouTube video “QuickPick Alcoa” went up today. This week, my Quick Pick is Alcoa (AA). Like in other commodities, with aluminum we are seeing a supply deficit amidst growing demand. Plus, Alcoa is paying down its debt, and generating a positive cash flow which has led the company to announce a dividend payment and re-institute stock buybacks.

I’m adding Alcoa to my Jubak Picks Portfolio as a hedge against Ukraine risk and as a commodity boom play

I’m adding Alcoa to my Jubak Picks Portfolio as a hedge against Ukraine risk and as a commodity boom play

Today I’m adding shares of Alcoa (AA) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. At 3:10 p.m. today, February 18, the shares were up 2.01% on the day. My target price for the shares is $93. The pick is a short-term hedge against sanctions against Russia if the Ukraine/Russia conflict escalates further. Russia supplies 6% of the world’s aluminum and I’d expect European and U.S. sanctions to hit those exports. The pick is longer term bet on the continued rise in demand for aluminum and a continued and growing shortage of supply.

Please watch my new YouTube video : Steady vs. hot hands

Please watch my new YouTube video : Steady vs. hot hands

I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and second YouTube video “Strong hands vs. hot hands” went up today. Today I’m looking at a few stocks that exemplify what most experienced traders know: some hands are steady, and some are not. So when Nvidia announced this week that it expected to see supply chain issues (despite beating earnings and raising guidance), the stock fell. Similar things happened to chip-making equipment supplier Applied Materials and Albemarle, the lithium maker. I’m taking this opportunity to add some of these stocks into my portfolios. What about you?

Generac pops after earnings and guidance for 2022

Generac pops after earnings and guidance for 2022

Shares of Generac Holdings (GNRC), a maker of backup power systems, are up 14.05% at 3:45 p.m. New York time today, February 16, after the company reported fourth quarter earnings of $2.51 a share after the market close on Tuesday. Revenue hit $1.06 billion. Wall Street had been expecting earnings of $2.42 a share and revenue of $1.02 billion. For the full 2021 fiscal year net sales climbed 50% to a record $3.75 billion. Adjusted earnings were $9.63 a share. But it was guidance for 2022 that popped the stock.

Disney beats on revenue, earnings–and new streaming subscribers

Disney beats on revenue, earnings–and new streaming subscribers

So much for fears the Disney (DIS) would follow the disappointing course plotted by Netflix (NFLX) and report disappointing numbers for new subscriptions to its Disney Plus streaming service. For the December quarter, the company’s first quarter of fiscal 2022, Disney Plus added 11.8 million subscribers, easily beating analyst projections for 7.3 million new subscribers.